tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29822098.post553498302919648542..comments2023-09-27T03:55:18.369-04:00Comments on The Occasional Observer: Why I'm nervous about NovemberFredohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13937201111960580542noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29822098.post-8993140275852344712012-07-08T23:56:50.598-04:002012-07-08T23:56:50.598-04:00I don't think he can drop it as an issue. He ...I don't think he can drop it as an issue. He needs a credible plan for replacing ACA. He should avoid defending Romneycare altogether. Its irrelevant nationslly. a niche product. Criticize whets roundly despised, and that's the ACA. <br /><br />As far as the polling, if you look st the RCP average, Rasmussen is a pro GOP outlier. In 04 they were great, but if you look at 08 they skewed the results right by several points. I always look at Rasmussen as best case, Gallup, Survey USA and Mason Dixon as middle of the road, and Quinnipiac and PPP as left leaning.Fredohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13937201111960580542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29822098.post-27472496632276970562012-07-05T20:49:31.142-04:002012-07-05T20:49:31.142-04:00What polls do you look at most closely? For my mo...What polls do you look at most closely? For my money Rasmussen is far and away the most accurate at figuring out likely voters and actual election outcome. He's had Romney with a slight lead for many weeks now. Also, almost all major polls have Obama less than 50% which is an important floor for the incumbent. Of course, intrade has obama with a strong and sustained lead.<br /><br />That said, I'm worried about November too. Mostly because Romney is in a corner on obamacare. If he calls it a tax like GOP establishment wants, he has no position to counter from his own romneycare. Unfortunately the heritage foundation and he were the first to call for individual mandate. I think his best plan is to drop attacking obamacare. As far as I've heard so far, he has failed miserably to piece together a sound bite argument as to why romneycare is different than obamacare, and therefore why obama's policy is bad for the country if it ws good for Massachusetts. His standard line about state's rights vs. federal makes for a good policy position paper, but poor debate strategy. Obama will absolutely slaughter him and make him look foolish.SheaHeyKidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16601211291239731839noreply@blogger.com