The Occasional Observer

RCP average shows Rudy dropping steadily over past two months, and latest story about his multiple contributions to Planned Parenthood may seal his fate.

The more I think about it, I really hope the RNC is doing some behind-the-scenes organizing to make sure that the Republicans remain in position to win in '08. That is to say, minimize negative attacks on each other leading up to primaries; avoid revelation of potentially damaging info in general election that could be used by other side; etc. I would take almost any of the present Republican candidates over Billary, Obama, Edwards, or Gore. In particular I find almost all the Republican candidates to be strong on key issues of GWOT and fiscal policy.

I wonder which of the current candidates would be willing to run as VP? If Rudy really does retain his stranglehold on the front-runner position, this is something all others will have to ask themselves. I think it would be a good choice for Mitt: he has relatively little political experience so serving as VP could bolster him in that area, and he's young enough that delaying a presidential run for 8 years is not out of the question. On the other hand, if Rudy added someone with strong SoCon appeal, that could expand his base of voters and make him a virtual lock in '08.

That said, I really hope Rudy's appeal fades over time and Mitt makes a power move to lock up undecideds or weakly aligned voters, to propel himself into first place. I still see him as the best balance of conservative policies and pragmatic politics. He's done well at both CPAC and first televised debate, time to translate that into increased supporters.

Chirac is out, and almost certainly better France-US relations will be in with Sarkozy.

Two good things about Sarkozy: (1) he wants to be better allies with US, (2) his presence is going to end years of France's ass-kissing of terrorists. This will force the balance of power in Europe and I think will also provide a much-needed voice beyond that of US and Australia to the Arab world to clean up their own problems.

Gov. Huckabee floored me when he announced he wanted to push for the Fair Tax. As far as I'm aware, this makes him the first GOP candidate to call for abolishing the IRS and replacing the income tax with a consumption tax. As far as I'm concerned (and for reasons discussed on this blog before), this would be the single most beneficial change in tax policy that our country could have at this point. Liking Huckabee already, I was extremely happy to hear him announce this position.

In fact, Mrs Fredo had to scold me because of the sleeping children. What can I do? Exciting times are exciting times.

as Rush would say.

I just love this headline from Yahoo! News:

• Climate change led to Neanderthals' demise, scientists say

You can kind of imagine the discussion that went into picking this headline:

Ben Bradlee: "OK, boys, we've got nothing to lead with. Nothing. This one headline looks promising but it's incomplete: Something led to Neanderthal's demise."

Naive intern: "Do we know what scientists think killed the Neanderthal?"

Han Solo: "Look kid, scientists are a dime a dozen. Just write your headline and we'll find one who supports us."

Kieth Olbermann: "George W Bush killed the Neanderthal. And then became a Neanderthal to cover it up. How stupid. How deviously genius."

Woodward: "I had an off-the-record sit down with the GEICO cave men, and they assured me that the Neanderthal are indeed alive and well. I have a second source that confirmed via negative consent."

Rosie: "What a load of bull. Figures I'm in a room full of straight white men. The answer is obvious: our culture of intolerance killed the Neanderthal."

Bradlee: "Compelling."

Sen. Reid: "That is not compelling. I can't sell that to the independent voter. It's our culture of corruption that killed the Neanderthal."

Algore: "I'd prefer to stick to my, er, the facts. As such, I've brought along 25 copies of An Inconvenient Truth. If you'll quickly turn to page 78, I'd like you take a look at some of the hypothesized charts showing global mean temperature change over 1000 year intervals. I think you'll find that when the Neanderthal began moving from cooking meat over fire pits to using coal-based BBQ pits, global temperatures began changing radically."

Han Solo: "Hokie science and ancient scare tactics are no match for a good headline at your side."

Bradlee: "Good point, Han. What are you getting at Al?"

Olbermann: "O'Reilly killed the Neanderthal?"

Algore: "It's climate change that killed the Neanderthal. Now if you'll move along to page 79..."

Bradlee: "Thanks Al. We're good. I think we've got our headline. Senator?"

Reid [rummaging through his man-purse]: "I think I've got my stamp in here somewhere..."

you are really glad to be proven wrong about someone.

Check out this post over at the National Review. It has a bunch of short reviews on the debate, from respected and intelligent conservative commentators.

From the comments:

-Several commented that MSNBC did a terrible job, from format to moderating

-Most agreed that Romney had a very good night

-Most agreed that Huckabee had a very good night, some saying he may have catapulted himself into or near the first tier.

-Most thought that Hunter and Gilmore did a decent enough job

-Most agreed that Giuliani had a very bad night

-Negative comments outweighed the positives for T. Thompson, Tancredo, Paul, and Brownback

One last point on Ron Paul, before I forget, and because I'll probably never have reason to comment on the man again. I thought he was articulate, reasonable, and much more serious than I had given him credit for. I think his principled brand of libertarian/sound money/small government conservatism is admirable, but probably not practical in light of many of the threats our country faces today (immigration invasion, cultural decay, jihadism). Those at N.R. who characterized him as a "crazy uncle" were, IMHO, out of line.

France's days of being a bunch of dandies might be over soon.. Might become much more useful ally to US.

The main problem with the debate was the format. I heard Newt on Fox News stating that it would be nice to hear some back and forth from the candidates without so much moderating. I agree entirely.

My main gripes with the format:

1) Too often, only one candidate was asked to respond to a question. This made it impossible to get a sense of contrast between candidates. The two notable exceptions were Iraq, where each candidate had the chance to discuss, and the "down the line" questions, which was of limited usefulness because "yes" and "no" typically doesn't flesh out a position.

2) The wrong questions were asked of the wrong candidates. Especially grievous was asking Gilmore about the female prison population. Why not ask Brownback about an issue that he has been specifically discussing on the stump?

3) Overly combative, "gotcha" questions. Not only were several of the questions stupid, but the moderators (especially the Politico guy) seemed to revel in asking them in a nasty tone. I'm glad these guys have a taste of what the Dem/MSM teamwork will feel like in the General, but it was a waste of valuable debate time. Examples:

-to Romney: "What do you like least about America?"

-to McCain: "You were against Bush's tax cuts but now are for them. That makes no sense." [If the follow up had been, "please explain", that might have made sense]

Then there was this ridiculous exchange between Matthews and Huckabee [directly from the transcript]:

Moderator: Governor Huckabee, you've criticized Governor Romney for saying his faith wouldn't get in the way of his public life, his governing. Are you going to back that up tonight?

Huckabee: I've never criticized Governor Romney for that.

(Crosstalk)

Huckabee: I said, in general -- and I would say this tonight to any of us -- when a person says, "My faith doesn't affect my decision- making," I would say that the person is saying their faith is not significant to impact their decision process.

I tell people up front, "My faith does affect my decision process." It explains me. No apology for that. My faith says, "Do unto others as you'd have them do unto you..."

Moderator: But you answered a question that George Stephanopoulos of ABC about this governor, one of your rivals, and you answered it in this way: "I'm not as troubled by a person who has a different faith. I'm troubled by a person who tells me their faith doesn't influence their decisions."

That's in direct response to George Stephanopoulos on February 11th of this year. Why are you changing that point of view now?

Huckabee: Well, I didn't know I was changing the point of view.

Moderator: No, you're changing your quote.

Huckabee: I'm saying that of anyone, whether it's Governor Romney or Governor Gilmore...

Moderator: Well, you answered in direct response to Governor Romney and his Mormonism. Why are you pulling back now?

Huckabee: I don't mean to be pulling back. I want to state very clearly: A person's faith shouldn't qualify or disqualify for public office. It shouldn't do that.

But we ought to be honest and open about it. And I think it does help explain who we are, what our value systems are, what makes us tick, and what our processors are.

"Are you going to back that up?" Why not ask him, "are you a man or a chick?" Is this seriously a debate worthy approach to asking questions? First, Matthews infers a meaning from Huckabee's quote that is not at all a sure thing, given that Huckabee never mentions Romney in the quote. But rather than allowing the candidate to explain himself, Matthews simply defines Huckabee as "backing down" when it was, at a minimum, questionable that he actually was changing his story. He goes on to imply that that Hucakbee had flip-flopped. There is no reason for a moderator to be taking that approach. Disgraceful.

UPDATE:

Here's the full transcript on the Stephanopoulos/Huckabee conversation. It totally acquits Huckabee of Matthews' charges and proves that he was being consistent:

[1]10:23:37 GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS (ABC NEWS)
(OC) Governor Romney, his religion, he's a Mormon, has become a – is going to become a big part of this campaign clearly. You're a southern Baptist, former southern Baptist preacher.


[1]10:23:45 MIKE HUCKABEE (2008 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE)
Uh-huh.


[1]10:23:46 GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS (ABC NEWS)
(OC) And that denomination teaches I believe that Mormonism is a cult. How big a hurdle is that going to be for Governor Romney in this campaign?


[1]10:23:56 MIKE HUCKABEE (2008 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE)
Well, you know, I'm not sure and I don't know that anyone knows. What I can tell you is about my faith and what it means and I think people ought to look at every person who runs for office and they ought to ask them questions about who they are and what they are about and what drives their decisions. I'm not as troubled by a person who has a different faith.

That is all.