The Occasional Observer

Sponsored by the AFP Foundation in NH earlier tonight.

Here's the link to the video.

Mitt, T-Paw, and Bachmann all spoke credibly. Long-shot candidates Santorum and Cain as well. If you'd like some real red meat that will make you smile, watch Herman Cain at around the 50 minute mark.

Yes--in the grand scheme of things, the guy is basically a goof.

But he just made the most powerful man on the planet finally cow-tow to his demand and show the birth certificate. Not that I have any reason to believe that this issue will be put to rest--there's plenty of ammo for all of the conspiracy theorists to blast away with.

Generally, the best way to deal with someone beneath you in standing who makes what you believe is an outrageous demand or comment is to tell them to shut the hell up. Obama could have easily said that the proper authorities had already reviewed the necessary documentation and Trump was out of line by insisting to see it. By doing things this way, Obama gave Trump validity.

And to make matters worse, O waited to interrupt Trump's press conference until the point when the Donald started talking about the real issues of taxing Chinese products and severing job outsourcing with India. Within seconds, Obama came sprinting to the podium looking like he just finished a 5K. That reeked of desperation to shut Trump up and then was topped by calling him a "carnival barker."

All of this will just fuel Trump's already massive ego further. The guy is a showman and his spotlight just got even bigger.

One other note on Trump's speech--he played his hand perfectly. His next move looks like it's going to be attacking Obama's academic record. Trump insinuated that Obama was not a great student (from verifiable accounts), yet managed to get into Columbia and then Harvard. So he basically hinted at Obama being a "token" student and did it without looking racist.

Well played, crazy, bad-hair man...well played.

on Wikipedia, and around their 12th album I came across the following criticism:

In 2000, the band released Stiff Upper Lip, produced by brother George Young at the Warehouse Studio, again in Vancouver. The album was better received by critics than Ballbreaker but was considered lacking in new ideas. [my emphasis]

Lacking in new ideas?

Did the Lombardi era Packers run off-tackle too much?

Did Lance Armstrong ride up the Alps the same way every time?

Did the German army role France so many times it became monotonous?

When you execute to perfection you don't mess with the formula. Just rinse and repeat.

Some people just. don't. get it.

Excluding Cain, Karger, and whatever other bit candidates jump into the fray, here's my early read on who looks like they're getting in on the GOP side:

Romney
Pawlenty
Daniels
Barbour
Gingrich
Bachmann
Santorum
Trump
Johnson
Paul

Here's who's not:

Palin
Huckabee
Huntsman

As of this moment, I'm open to a Mitt, T-Paw, or Daniels candidacy as my 1a 1b and 1c.

Bachmann should not be taken seriously (she is Quayle redux with ridiculous quotes), though she may well garner some real attention and resources early on. She will probably eclipse Ron Paul as the Tea Party candidate.

Santorum and Gingrich are in the same boat: world view is great, but not enough #winning.

Trump is flat out dangerous to GOP prospects in '12. Hopefully he blows up early and vanishes. Drudge is apparently on to his trojan horse candidacy as well, running a series of headlines today that read as follows:
"Trump: Carter worst President ever
Trump: Bush worst President ever
Trump: Obama worst President ever

Trump is brash and forthright, which appeals to a certain demographic, but ultimately when denied the nomination he could utilize that support as a drag against the GOP nominee when he runs as an independent. And all the birther stuff will prevent him from drawing any moderate or Dem votes. The whole thing smells.

Barbour is a serious man, by all accounts a successful conservative governor, and would normally have an easy path to securing my support. But the identity politics of his candidacy suck, and his background as an "insiders-insider," professional fund raiser, and full-time lobbyist couldn't be more wrong as a narrative in this cycle. Not when the GOP is looking for someone who wants to roll back the symbiotic tax-and-spend beast that is the K street money machine and professional full time politiicans; and argue for a future with a scaled back federal government.

Palin or Huck running would certainly change the dynamics of the race, but they don't seem to be laying the groundwork right now.

As for my top 3 choices, Pawlenty checks every box, and has been more aggressive than Mitt supporting the hardliners in the battle for solvency (Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, etc.). Mitt has seemed a little more cautious and judicious in waiting to jump in the fray. Both are proven commodities as leaders dealing with active Democrat oppositions in their state, and handling them with aplomb.

Daniels is the biggest ? in my book as to whether he runs, and how he positions himself. If he does, I'll be paying attention to how he (and Mitt and TPaw) handle the campaign, debates, and responding to events on the fly to see which ultimately gain my support.

The veteran political analyst weighs in with this judgment: "He's a joke."

As he's been spiking in the polls, I've kept thinking to myself that he would blow up his candidacy with his undisciplined spout-hole before we even get to the Hawkeye Cawkeye.

I didn't figure it'd be before he even threw his hat in the ring.

What an a-hole.

If he does go ahead with running as an independent, you will never convince me his whole "right-turn," "pro-tea-party" shtick wasn't a pre-meditated attempt to act as a trojan horse in the GOP race, ultimately in support of Obama.