Friday, April 15, 2011

Early effort at handicapping the GOP field

Excluding Cain, Karger, and whatever other bit candidates jump into the fray, here's my early read on who looks like they're getting in on the GOP side:

Romney
Pawlenty
Daniels
Barbour
Gingrich
Bachmann
Santorum
Trump
Johnson
Paul

Here's who's not:

Palin
Huckabee
Huntsman

As of this moment, I'm open to a Mitt, T-Paw, or Daniels candidacy as my 1a 1b and 1c.

Bachmann should not be taken seriously (she is Quayle redux with ridiculous quotes), though she may well garner some real attention and resources early on. She will probably eclipse Ron Paul as the Tea Party candidate.

Santorum and Gingrich are in the same boat: world view is great, but not enough #winning.

Trump is flat out dangerous to GOP prospects in '12. Hopefully he blows up early and vanishes. Drudge is apparently on to his trojan horse candidacy as well, running a series of headlines today that read as follows:
"Trump: Carter worst President ever
Trump: Bush worst President ever
Trump: Obama worst President ever

Trump is brash and forthright, which appeals to a certain demographic, but ultimately when denied the nomination he could utilize that support as a drag against the GOP nominee when he runs as an independent. And all the birther stuff will prevent him from drawing any moderate or Dem votes. The whole thing smells.

Barbour is a serious man, by all accounts a successful conservative governor, and would normally have an easy path to securing my support. But the identity politics of his candidacy suck, and his background as an "insiders-insider," professional fund raiser, and full-time lobbyist couldn't be more wrong as a narrative in this cycle. Not when the GOP is looking for someone who wants to roll back the symbiotic tax-and-spend beast that is the K street money machine and professional full time politiicans; and argue for a future with a scaled back federal government.

Palin or Huck running would certainly change the dynamics of the race, but they don't seem to be laying the groundwork right now.

As for my top 3 choices, Pawlenty checks every box, and has been more aggressive than Mitt supporting the hardliners in the battle for solvency (Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, etc.). Mitt has seemed a little more cautious and judicious in waiting to jump in the fray. Both are proven commodities as leaders dealing with active Democrat oppositions in their state, and handling them with aplomb.

Daniels is the biggest ? in my book as to whether he runs, and how he positions himself. If he does, I'll be paying attention to how he (and Mitt and TPaw) handle the campaign, debates, and responding to events on the fly to see which ultimately gain my support.

0 comments:

AddThis

Bookmark and Share

Always sniffing for the truth

Always sniffing for the truth

Blog Archive

Follow by Email