Saturday, November 12, 2011

When do the candidates drop out?

Any guesses?

Here are mine:

Scenario 1 (Newt wins FL):

Santorum/Bachmann: After Iowa (1/4)
Huntsman/Johnson: After NH (1/11)
Perry/Cain: Few days after SC (1/24)
Gingrich: Late April
Paul: Never drops out, takes it right to the convention to enjoy another 15 minutes.

The main question here is how solid is Cain's support? If he remains in double-digits through FL, Newt will have a hard time winning FL, and Mitt might sew it up early. If Cain drops out after SC, Newt might win FL, and that would sustain him through super Tuesday and beyond, only to bow out after the winner-take-all primaries on 4/24.


Scenario 2 (Mitt wins FL):

Santorum/Bachmann: After Iowa (1/4)
Huntsman/Johnson: After NH (1/11)
Perry: Few days after SC (1/24)
Gingrich: Mid-Feb (after CO)
Cain: Late April
Paul: Never drops out, takes it right to the convention to enjoy another 15 minutes.

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Always sniffing for the truth

Always sniffing for the truth

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