The Occasional Observer

Took the boys to see their first Star Wars movie in the theatres on Saturday morning.  Some observations:

1) Star Wars rules.  Any time you can see a SW movie in the theatres, it's a win.

Coming into last night's debate, Santorum had seen a double digit polling lead in MI essentially evaporate over the previous week.  Santorum was going to need a strong debate performance to turn things around and re-establish some momentum heading into Tuesday's vote.  Unfortunately for the former Senator, for reasons that were partly out of his control and partly his own shortcomings, he was the weakest performer on the stage and will probably see his poll number continue to sag.

Check out this article for interesting insight into what makes this man tick.  Just as many questions as answers, which to me, is the sign of reasonably fair journalism.

Dave Mustaine's endorsement of Santorum, that is.

Q: What do you mean I don't support your system?
A:  I go to court when I have to.

NY Mag gets to the heart of the issue.  There has been, in many quarters, the underlying assumption that Mitt is the "most electable" republican.  Several times in this cycle (and even more over the course of Mitt's political career), this has proved NOT to be the case when actual voters actually walk into booths and pull levers/dimple chads/mark ballots.  Here's the author on why electability is still an open question:

Playing in Huntington this Wed.  And I'm only finding out about it now.  So angry.  Might have to crash that party.

Meanwhile, one of the most ass-kicking guitar parts EVER below.  And, BTW, whoever this dude is playing Guitar Hero is SICK!!!!

The National Review is as good a barometer for traditional Reaganite conservatisim as there is, and they are not amused by Newt or Mitt.

First, Newt:

It is not clear whether Gingrich remains in the race because he still believes he could become president next year or because he wants to avenge his wounded pride: an ambiguity that suggests the problem with him as a leader. When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit.

On Romney:

Romney is trying to win the nomination by pulverizing his rivals. His hope is that enthusiasm will follow when he takes on Obama in the summer and fall. But his attacks on Santorum have been lame, perhaps because they are patently insincere. (Does anyone believe that Romney truly thinks poorly of Santorum’s votes to raise the debt ceiling?)

...So far Romney has been running mostly on his biography: Republicans are supposed to vote for him because he is a family man and shrewd businessman. And Republicans, even the many who are well disposed to him, have been saying as loud as they can: It isn’t enough.

I don't know. Sounds familiar.

Someone could've made a lot of money on Intrade with these results. Rick really fumbled his chance to reintroduce himself with a horrible victory speech, but he has once again showed that the GOP base is rejecting Mitt.

Mitt needs to get serious about articulating a real agenda. He started this campaign with a bunch of mind-numbing 10 point plans, then went the platitude route with his "American greatness for American people creating American jobs via American exceptionalism" nonsense. Let's get a vision. His top 3 priorities. As of right now, I don't know what they are.

Where is he on reforming entitlements? (A: triangulating--I'll fix them, but not till out years).

Where is he on real tax reform? (A: triangulating--no across the board reform, targeted middle-class cuts).

Where is he on spending cuts? (A: he's a businessman and knows how to balance the books--which is not a plan).

Luckily for Mitt, no one seems prepared to wrest the nomination away from him. So he can continue to deploy massive resources at obliterating Rick and Newt, and can still cake walk to the nomination without upping his game. Or he can learn a lesson and stop trying to imitate Obama's vacuous '08 campaign, all airy rhetoric and no substance, and realize that the American people have tired of that. The reason they want Mitt is that he can make the hard choices.  He can fire people, cut programs, and get the federal budget deficit under control. He can put entitlements on a sustainable course. He needs to stop being afraid of saying so, other than in the most indirect way possible.

Krauthammer On "Poor" Comment: Romney Can't Explain Conservative Ideas

"Canada. That's a state. Nevermind."
"Utopia?"
"51?"

Bottled fetuses found in Hannibal basement: LINK TO VIDEO PROVIDED - Contractors discovered two fetuses in jars in the basement of a Hannibal property that was once the site of a clinic.

Mitt's an uber-rich white guy with plastic hair who made a Gazillion dollars in vulture capital, BUT:

1) He thinks corporations are people too
2) He likes firing people
3) He isn't concerned with the really poor

I think he's got Obama right where he wants him...

if he didn't say such weird things.

Two veepstakes contenders had their stock raised as a result of yesterday's Florida primary: Marco Rubio and Bob McDonnell.

3 of the 4 states that have held primaries so far are swing states.  Iowa, NH, and Florida have flipped between the parties over the last few elections.  And in those three states, the turnout for the GOP primaries, generally viewed as an indicator of voter enthusiasm, has been either slightly higher, or significantly lower than where it was in '08.  NH and IA registered mild upticks, but below what you might expect.  The GOP was the incumbent party in '08, and voter enthusiasm should be higher as the "out of power" party.  Add to that the fact that it's been assumed there would be an even stronger anti-Obama sentiment than against other incumbents.

In Florida last night, GOP turnout cratered compared to 4 years ago.  A very troubling sign, as Florida is probably the most important state in the country when one considers Electoral College math.

The only exception to rule is SC, which saw a marked increase in turnout.  Tellingly, this was (1) a state our likely nominee did not win, and (2) a state the GOP will carry under any but the largest pro-Obama landslide scenarios.

The Florida results, coupled with Iowa and NH, definitely make me wonder: Mitt may be en route to the nomination, but is the GOP on track to lose the White House?  A significant number of McCain voters  in Florida obviously felt that neither Gingrich nor Romney were worth pulling the lever for.  How does Mitt turn that around?

Someone liked my Fat Lady comment.  OK, so maybe I neglected to get a copyright on that one, but still...

From Erick Erickson:

The Fat Lady Hasn’t Sung, But She’s Warming Up