The Occasional Observer

Coming into last night's debate, Santorum had seen a double digit polling lead in MI essentially evaporate over the previous week.  Santorum was going to need a strong debate performance to turn things around and re-establish some momentum heading into Tuesday's vote.  Unfortunately for the former Senator, for reasons that were partly out of his control and partly his own shortcomings, he was the weakest performer on the stage and will probably see his poll number continue to sag.



Should Romney complete the comeback in MI and carry AZ, a two-for-two sweep that is starting to look probable, Mitt is back in the driver's seat.  There are no more debates before Super Tuesday.  If Rick sees his momentum dwindle away in Michigan, then Romney will probably carry Ohio on Super Tuesday as well.  Even if Rick or Newt are able to win a few Southern states, the delegate math would be tilted heavily towards a Mitt win.

And for the first time in this race, there is not an "AlternaMitt" waiting in the background who hasn't already had his 5 minutes in the spotlight.  All the alternatives have been exhausted.

I continue to think that Santorum is a likely veep pick for Mitt.  Santorum's yin completes Mitt's yang in a number of ways:  Heartland vs. Coast; Catholic vs. Mormon (or "fringe" as some evangelical and secular folks see it); rust-belt labor vs. venture capital; ideological consistency vs. (I'll be kind) nuanced flexbility.   Plus, it would do a lot to woo the very social conservatives that are an essential part of the GOP base, and skeptical about Mitt to begin with.

The hard-core debt-focused tea partiers would not be thrilled by the pick.  I'm sure they'd rather see a Christie, Rubio, Rand Paul, Mitch Daniels, etc.

Speaking of which, maybe Rand Paul's ambition explains the reason that Ron Paul has turned into a stalking horse/hatchet man on behalf of Mitt in the past few weeks...