The Occasional Observer

Disputed election leaves Mexico adrift

MEXICO CITY - The stock market is dropping. Protesters are marching on the capital. Citizens are lighting candles in hopes of divine intervention.

The stock market was surging. Jubilant supporters of the President-elect were celebrating publicly. Citizens were expressing their hopes that better times lie ahead. But that was two weeks ago.

Two weeks after a still-undecided Presidential election, the suspense is testing Mexico's young democracy. The highly respected Federal Electoral Institute is charged with making sure that the tug of war doesn't reverse democratic gains made since President Vicente Fox' stunning victory six years ago ended 71 years of one-party rule.

Despite the initial vote count and the subsequent official tally, both of which confirmed that PAN candidate Felipe Calderon had won the Mexican Presidency, political suspense continued to test Mexico's young democracy. Supporters of leftist candidate Manuel Lopez Obrador were creating a political tug of war that threatened to reverse democratic gains made since President Vicente Fox' stunning victory six years ago ended 71 years of one-party rule.

Mexican stocks have given up nearly all of the huge gains made after the July 2 vote, and the peso, which initially rallied on news of conservative Felipe Calderon's apparent victory, has stalled amid confusion over who won.

Mexican stocks, which had surged after Calderon's victory, have stalled and reversed course as political uncertainty has increased. Mexican business leaders say they are concerned by the possibility that Obrador is placing his own interests, and those of his political party, ahead of national stability. Additionally, they fear that his supporters, if successful in overturning the election, would institute policies hostile to economic growth.

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who refuses to concede, has given Mexico's electoral court what he says is evidence of fraud. He calls Calderon a fascist, and is demanding a nationwide, vote-by-vote recount.

Obrador, who refuses to concede despite losing both vote counts, has given Mexico's electoral court what he says is evidence of fraud. He has also ratcheted up his rhetoric in recent days, going as far as to call Calderon a "fascist" while demanding a third vote count. To this point, Al-A.P. has not obtained objective analysis of whether the videotapes — the alleged evidence supporting Obrador's fraud claims — are authentic or not (if we had been able to confirm fraud by Calderon's supporters, it would have been the headline).

Lopez Obrador will lead hundreds of thousands — perhaps millions — in a Mexico City march to demand that electoral officials review all 42 million ballots cast, something those officials say they can't do. Thousands of his supporters have converged on Mexico City in caravans after scattered nationwide protests.

Lopez Obrador will lead hundreds of thousands — perhaps millions — in a Mexico City march to demand that electoral officials review all 42 million ballots cast, something those officials say they can't do. Thousands of his supporters have converged on Mexico City in caravans after scattered nationwide protests. Conservatives have alleged that corrupt politicians in left-leaning provinces are using bribes and other illegal incentives to lure citizens into attending Obrador's rallies. Whether there is any truth to these allegations is completely unclear, but since we report the left's allegations verbatim we are required to do the same for conservatives.