The Occasional Observer

to win the GOP nomination

Contract Last Transaction Price

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 40.0
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 29.3
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 8.1
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 7.1
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 7.5
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 4.5
2008.GOP.NOM.RICE 1.2
2008.GOP.NOM.GINGRICH 0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.TANCREDO 0.1

For anyone unfamiliar w/ how Intrade works, they are options contracts that are worth $10/contract at expiration if they pay off (i.e., if the candidate becomes the nominee), and worth zero if they do not pay off. The price represents the % of full value (e.g. a contract priced at 40.0 can be purchased for $4.00). In addition to being an interesting way to gamble for those who subscribe to that dirty vice, it happens to be the best current indicator of the likelihood that a candidate will win. These votes are made with dollars, not with hype or wishful thinking.