Thursday, November 15, 2007
Get ready for a crazy stretch drive
Less than 2 months to the Hawkeye Cauc-eye, and Huckabee has, for all intents and purposes, caught Romney in the polls. The RCP average is something of a lagging indicator, but the trend is clear. For Brody's take on the most recent ARG poll, showing Mitt and Huck within two points of each other (and within the MOE), see here.
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4 comments:
Honestly this doesn't mean much to me. Polls are generally flawed. This one in particular had a sample size of only six hundred. Anyone who took stats (and understood it) will tell you that sample isn't big enough.
It's not one poll, mb. Look at the averages and the trendlines:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#polls
Huck has gone from polling in the mid single digits 4 months ago, to the 10% line about 3 months ago, to mid-teens a month ago, and 20% two weeks ago. Meanwhile, all the other candidates support has been basically flat, excepting McCain's fall from his early summer perch and Fred's subsequenst boom/bust cycle.
This one poll is merely interesting b/c it's the first one that shows Huck pulling even with Mitt. If past is prologue, it won't be the last.
Also, check out the Intrade numbers, always the best predictive indicator of where things are headed:
Intrade Political 'Securities' Percentage US$ Traded
Mitt Romney to Win 54.1% $3.8K
Mike Huckabee to Win 40.0% $2.8K
Rudy Giuliani to Win 5.2% $2.8K
Fred Thompson to Win 6.0% $1.5K
BTW, those intrade #'s are for the IA Caucus, not the nomination (obviously).