Thursday, December 11, 2008
Not sure what this has to do with talking it out, but...
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's administration will offer Israel a "nuclear umbrella" against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran.
But America's nuclear guarantee to Israel could also be interpreted as a sign the U.S. believes Iran will eventually acquire nuclear arms.
For more, see here.
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1 comments:
Saw a great seminar at my previous job by a foreign affairs prof from Harvard or MIT on Iran. Basically said you have 3 options: (1) continue on present path of "pressure" via sanctions, (2) prevent nuclear Iran at all costs, or (3) allow nuclear Iran and create policies to contain them. As he pointed out, if you consider each path in detail as well as endgames they all blow.
Option (1) has proven useless. Option (2) is fine, but if you think about how much military force would be needed to invade Iran as well as what would success be defined as and when would we be able to withdraw, doesn't look very exciting. Option (3) may end up being the reality, although it's not exactly clear how you "contain" Iran. How much power exactly does Ahmadinejad wield compared to the ruling mullahs? Would they be willing to use or sell their nukes? How do you stop it?
The increase in nuclear strength of N. Korea and Iran over the last decade is very troubling, and at the moment no obvious policy winner is clear. Perhaps allowing Israel to strike Iran and fight it out will be the short-term solution, but longer term something more substantive is needed.