The Occasional Observer

According to CNN, there may be shifts in the House as a result of the census. Here's how it might play out.

Provo, Utah: 47% growth. +1 seat for Utah for a total of 4
Raleigh, N.C.: 41% growth. No change in congress
Las Vegas, NV: 38% growth. +1 seat for Nevada for a total of 4
Austin, TX: 36% growth. +3 seats for Texas (or more) for a total of 35
Phoenix, AZ: 34% growth. +1 seat for AZ for a total of 9

New Orleans, LA: 10% loss. -1 seat for LA for a total of 6
Youngstown, OH: 7% loss. -2 seats for OH, down to 16
Buffalo, NY: 4% loss. -1 seat for NY, dropping to 28
Pittsburgh, PA: 3% loss. -1 seat for PA, for a total of 18
Cleveland, OH: 3% loss. -2 for OH as above.

Ok. UT is the reddest state, so that'll be a +1 for R. So TX is a pretty good bet for the R column. So that's +3. The NV could go either way, but I'll bet D since it's Vegas: +1 D. The AZ could go either way, but D is a pretty good bet there since it's Phoenix. So that's +3 R, +2 D so far.

LA will be a -1 R. Youngstown -1 D. Cleveland -1 D. Buffalo -1 R. Pittsburgh -1 D. So -2 R, -3 D.

So my best guess is a net of +1 R, -1 D. But best case is probably +3 R, -3 D.