Tuesday, January 10, 2012
NH: Early exit polls
CNN has a breaking news banner, that says that 7 out of 10 GOP primary voters are very worried about the economy.
If that polling turns out to be accurate, this could be a banner night for Mitt. Based on the numbers in Iowa, IIRC, Mitt took over 50% of voters who identified the economy as their primary concern. If that ratio were to carry over into NH, Mitt would substantially increase his share of the NH vote from where he was 4 years ago. That would be a big win, and situate him to possibly deal a final blow to the rest of the field in SC.
If the combined Newt/Santorum/Perry/Huntsman vote turns out to be less than Mitt's share, there is almost no rationale for his current opponents to continue.
Clear the field and bring on Rubio!
jk
Mostly.
If that polling turns out to be accurate, this could be a banner night for Mitt. Based on the numbers in Iowa, IIRC, Mitt took over 50% of voters who identified the economy as their primary concern. If that ratio were to carry over into NH, Mitt would substantially increase his share of the NH vote from where he was 4 years ago. That would be a big win, and situate him to possibly deal a final blow to the rest of the field in SC.
If the combined Newt/Santorum/Perry/Huntsman vote turns out to be less than Mitt's share, there is almost no rationale for his current opponents to continue.
Clear the field and bring on Rubio!
jk
Mostly.
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3 comments:
Word on the street is that mitt is leading polls in SC and big in FL. If he wins these four it's obviously game over.
McCain was on hannity's radio show this afternoon and asked about who mitt should have on his short list for vp. Rubio was first name he mentioned, Christie second. Clearly either pick should excite elements in the base, especially Rubio.
I personally don't think it will be either.
Portman, McDonnell, Pawlenty are my first 3 guesses.
At this point Santorum has probably earned a look as well. He's a rust belter with coattails in OH and PA, two swing states. A nice compliment for a Northeastener. His "my grandfather was a coal miner" backstory and his pro-manufacturing tax plan add a bit of populist appeal for a ticket that would be lead by a VC financier. Ultimately, I think Mitt shies away from Rick b/c of his culture warrior past, but wouldn't surprise me to see him on the short list.
Rubio = slamdunk victory for the Republicans.