Saturday, August 11, 2007
Ames Results In!
And Mitt did what he needed to do. Huckabee makes a claim to be a serious tier 1 candidate. Brownback may survive, but Huckabee threw a hammerlock on his campaign's prospects, especially considering that BBack spent far more and did far more grass-roots organizational work than Huck did in preparation for Ames. T. Thompson will close up shop in the next few days, IMHO.
Here's where what it looked like:
1. Romney 31%
2. Huckabee 18.1%
3. Brownback 15.3%
4. Tancredo 13.7%
5. Paul 9.1%
6. T. Thompson 7.3%
7. F. Thompson 1.6%
8. Giuliani 1.3%
9. Hunter 1.2%
10. McCain 0.7%
11. Cox 0.003%
For the record, here were my predictions:
1 Romney
2 Huckabee (called the big news of the night)
3 Tancredo
4 Brownback
5 Giuliani
6 Paul
7 Thompson F
8 Thompson T
9 McCain
10 Hunter
11 Cox
Here's where what it looked like:
1. Romney 31%
2. Huckabee 18.1%
3. Brownback 15.3%
4. Tancredo 13.7%
5. Paul 9.1%
6. T. Thompson 7.3%
7. F. Thompson 1.6%
8. Giuliani 1.3%
9. Hunter 1.2%
10. McCain 0.7%
11. Cox 0.003%
For the record, here were my predictions:
1 Romney
2 Huckabee (called the big news of the night)
3 Tancredo
4 Brownback
5 Giuliani
6 Paul
7 Thompson F
8 Thompson T
9 McCain
10 Hunter
11 Cox
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4 comments:
Tancredo and Paul should close up shop as well, but since both are running b/c they're issue candidates and want a megaphone rather than victory, they'll stay in.
Tom Bevan of RCP had this to say:
"The big question mark coming out of Ames is Sam Brownback. He says yesterday's third place finish won him a ticket to the caucuses, but coming in behind Huckabee after breaking the bank at the straw poll was clearly a disappointment. Will Brownback continue? The answer to that question could have a significant impact on the final outcome in Iowa."
If Brownback withdraws, Huckabee has a major chance to consolidate the SoCon vote.
Huckabee's got a solid message, but unfortunately in today's races it really comes down to who can buy the most airtime. The best Huckabee could do is make enough of a name for himself that Mitt chooses him as VP.. I suppose it's possible that if he is perceived as having a legitimate shot, all the money that Repub donors have held back thus far this year could start flowing to him, but that seems to be a long shot.