Wednesday, May 14, 2008
This is the 4th trumpet or so
A deeply rural Mississippi district elected a Dem in a House special election yesterday.
Consider all the hard evidence pointing to a Dem rout this Nov:
1) Outgoing GOP President is the least popular in the history of polls
2) Obama outfundraising McCain 5-to-1 or thereabouts
3) Right-track/wrong-track figures are 80% wrong track, in a cycle where McCain is a BusHugger and Obama represents both rhetorical change and a generational change.
4) In 3 special elections in traditionally GOP districts so far this year, Dems have taken House seats.
5) GOP is defending twice as many Senate seats this Fall as the Dems.
6) Dems were outdrawing GOP primary voters by huge margins, even when the GOP race was still in question.
7) GOP candidate will be out-of-sync with downticket Republican candidates on a host of issues.
Any of these factors individually would be inconclusive. Together, I think we're starting to see the makings of a once-in-a-generation election cycle in which the landscape is transformed. This could be considered a '32 or '94 by the time all is said and done.
Imagine a filibuster-proof Dem majority in the Senate and a Veto-proof majority in the House, along with a Dem president--it could yet come to pass.
Consider all the hard evidence pointing to a Dem rout this Nov:
1) Outgoing GOP President is the least popular in the history of polls
2) Obama outfundraising McCain 5-to-1 or thereabouts
3) Right-track/wrong-track figures are 80% wrong track, in a cycle where McCain is a BusHugger and Obama represents both rhetorical change and a generational change.
4) In 3 special elections in traditionally GOP districts so far this year, Dems have taken House seats.
5) GOP is defending twice as many Senate seats this Fall as the Dems.
6) Dems were outdrawing GOP primary voters by huge margins, even when the GOP race was still in question.
7) GOP candidate will be out-of-sync with downticket Republican candidates on a host of issues.
Any of these factors individually would be inconclusive. Together, I think we're starting to see the makings of a once-in-a-generation election cycle in which the landscape is transformed. This could be considered a '32 or '94 by the time all is said and done.
Imagine a filibuster-proof Dem majority in the Senate and a Veto-proof majority in the House, along with a Dem president--it could yet come to pass.
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3 comments:
According to this article, the DCCC also has a 6-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over the NRCC.
I agree that generally it should be lining up for an historic Dem rout, but..
1. I think the polls that show that a generic Dem beats a generic Repub in the fall by 10-12 points, but when you match McCain specifically against Obama or Hillary those leads disappear, are quite telling. It says that while people in general want a Dem, they don't necessarily want either of these Dems. I think Obama's patriotism could present a major electability issue for him.
2. As far as funding, McCain can put Obama over a barrel on this issue. Obama last year claimed he would forego private funding for public $ if his opponent would agree to do so, which of course McCain wants to do. Now that Obama has such huge fundraising edge he of course wants to backpedal. If he refuses to stick by his original pledge, McCain can proclaim that while Obama likes to talk about change, he doesn't walk the walk, whereas McCain does.
Another thing to consider: McCain is not a typical conservative. I think if Huck had been running, and possibly even Mitt, we would be crushed this fall since the Dems could've easily painted them as 4 more years. The Dems are trying to paint McCain as 4 more years, but I don't think it's going to stick. Enough Indies and moderate Dems have had a favorable view of McCain for years and know that he is quite different than 4 more years, and I think his ability to steal votes is what gives him a shot at victory.