The Occasional Observer

If you've been following the race in Jersey, you've seen Christie go from a double-digit lead earlier this year to a dead heat in the most recent polls.

This isn't that surprising, really, and follows the pattern of the last few statewide Jersey elections. Jersey voters seem tired of the corrupt single-party rule that their state has endured for years now. But when the Dems zero on the GOP challenger, and make known their actual positions (or at least, distorted images of those actual positions), they are able to scare the liberal electorate into retaining the status quo.

This year, with their big budget ad blitz, they've managed to successfully portray Christie as, first and foremost, white, male and fat. Secondly, as someone who uses his authority and insider status for his own benefit (cross reference with white/male/fat). Finally, as a heartless conservative, who wants to strip people of their medical coverage, force women to go without mammograms, and poor children to beg for food.

Christie either doesn't have the budget or the political team to respond effectively. His add about his mom having breast cancer came across as really defensive, and almost ceding the point to Corzine.

Yet there is one glimmer of hope, at the end of the day. Even now, in the most recent polling, Corzine is only attracting about 40% of the vote. He's essentially tied with Christie, with the third party candidate, Daggett, polling around 14%. What that tells you is that almost 55% of the electorate wants the incumbent out.

If Christie were smart, he'd stop engaging with Corzine, and simply go after Daggett supporters. Doing so allows him a backhand slap at Corzine, while going after voters who are already clearly disaffected with the governor:

"According to the most recent polls, 64% of New Jersey voters want a new governor in Trenton. But if you want change, Chris Christie is your only real choice. While Chris Daggett would represent an improvement over Jon Corzine, he only garners 14% in the polls--not enough to come close to winning, but enough to return Corzine as governor. If you want change, a vote for Chris Christie is the only way to avoid more of the same: the same Democrat corruption; the same Democrat tax hikes; the same growing Democrat deficits; the same weak Democrat economy."