Friday, February 05, 2010

The Tea Party

I like the whole tea party movement. To me it's represents my frequent exclaimation, "Stop spending all my damn money!" But, what are the ramifications?

Scenario 1: Palin/Paul lead the Tea Party to a populist and somewhat liberatian campaign resulting in a viable third party nomination in 2012. The Tea Party draws MANY Republican votes, lots of independents votes and some Democrat votes. Obama wins a second term, but the Republicans reshape the party to revert to a small government viewpoint.

Scenario 2: Anti-Incumbentism throws out an unexpectently large number of people from Congress in 2010. Democrats continue to veer sharply left. Republicans (God willing) finally understand the public doesn't want more government. Newt Gingrich wins the Republican nomination for President. Gingrich/Beck (Glenn) win in a landslide and the U.S.A. is put on the path of redemption.

Scenario 3: The Tea Party predictably splits the Republican (and independent) vote.
Obama wins a second term. China ends up owning 63% of American corporations and imposes , by monetary fiat, a socitalism regime. The top 3% of wealth leaves the country with their money. The dollar drops in value by 80%. Unemployment reaches 23%. Federal income tax rates for the middle class surpass 60%. Imports cost 300% more. Riots ensue in Chicago, LA, Miami and Detroit. I finally indulge my paranoia and order iodine pills for my family.
I stop voluntarily paying taxes. I cancel direct deposit and keep my salary in cash under my mattress. I convert 50% of my cash to gold. I study medicine and purchase a comprehensive medical kit. The OccObs crew and I meet to plan survival after the disintegration of American Society. Caribou Express's value in survival is carefully considered. D.C. prematurely kills his neighbors following the logic of apocalyptic survival and is incarcerated. Manbeast finally gives into public pressure and runs for public office . . . . . . ..


dark commenteer said...

They'll never take me alive!!!

ManBeast said...

Where are the other ridculous scenarios from the other OccObsers?

SheaHeyKid said...

Scenario 3 seems sadly likely.

Fredo said...

You set the bar high, MB. More to come...

dark commenteer said...

Maybe I should start hoping for that zombie invasion or robot uprising...

Fredo said...

Here's my scenario:

Buoyed by polling numbers, showing independents abandoning the Dems far left agenda in droves, the GOP plays to a technocratic, center-right position with a 2012 candidate like Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels, Brown or McDonnell. There message: stop creeping socialism, restore economic prosperity. Tea partiers are disappointed that the GOP isn't giving them much red meat "constitutionalism". There's a groundswell of support for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate, and early polling shows her taking about 20% of the vote. Palin ultimately decides not to run, realizing that a fractured base would ensure Obama's reelection. The Tea Party goes ahead with a 3rd party candidate anyway, nominating Tom Tancredo, who initially polls around 10%, but his numbers shrink from there the more he shows off his crazy eyes.

Eventually, the center-right GOP candidate (let's say Pawlenty) takes about 52% of the vote, to 42% for Obama, to 4% for Tancredo.

President Pawlenty works with the GOP House and divided Senate on entitlement reform, brings on some centrist Dems with a promise to reduce defense spending proportionally, and postpone broad-based marginal rate cuts.

Without immediate tax cuts and with a tighter money supply, the "new normal" of higher unemployment (~7%) and lower average growth rates in GDP continues (1-2%).

However, as government stimulus subsides, and the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy to ward off inflation, the savings rate goes up and the purchasing power of the dollar stabilizes. While these moves will lay the groundwork for another cycle of prosperity, it will not come quickly.

The winner of the 2016 election will be in a better position to reap the benefits of a new secular bull market and more robust economic growth.


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Always sniffing for the truth

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