Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Are GOP gains slipping away?

It still seems likely, by a wide margin, that the GOP will recapture the house.

But instead of an 8-10 seat gain in the Senate, which looked to be the case 3 weeks ago, we're now looking at a 5-7 seat gain. And the trends are getting worse.

Johnson, Toomey, Raese, Paul, and Rossi have all the seen their polling numbers deteriorate. RCP has Rossi trailing. The other 4 went from mid or high single digit leads to leads that are within MOE or just outside of them.

Obama's JA #s crossed into net positive territory with Gallup today for the first time in months. He was -10 JA a few polls ago, and is now +4.

How is this happening?

First and foremost, four tea-party packed GOP candidates have followed the Dem script, and gotten involved in major campaign SNAFUs that make them look extreme, and/or ignorant, and not-ready-for-prime time.

For Sharron Angle, it was the accusation of american towns operating under Sharia Law. Dearborn, MI, does not. And the Texas town she mentioned does not exist.

Joe Miller was caught waffling about the fact that he was disciplined by the municipality he worked for in AK on the public payroll for using public property (computers) for private ends. And when questioned about it (by a liberal blogger whose behavior was, I'm sure, out of bounds), his security guards detained the man, which ended up drawing attention to his original transgression.

Christine (Esmerelda) O'Donnell, who has had one train wreck after another (and is really the poster girl for the anti-tea party movement), admitted with surprise that she had no idea that 1st amendment of the constitution involved religious freedom.

But the winner, the ring leader of failed campaigners, is NYS gubenatorial candidate Carl Paladino. After months of bellowing about wanting to take a baseball bat to Albany, and his empty boasts about giving Cuomo "the vetting he's never had," he backtracks in last night's debate to say that "he's not angry...just passionate." After the gay baiting, physical threats to reporters, swipes at Cuomo's personal behavior (and bizzare insinuation about Cuomo's "prowess"), and questioning of Rick Lazio's manhood, can he seriously he say he's not angry? I really think in lieu of a campaign, he just needs the Al Pacino snippet from Scent of a Woman, where Col. Slade stands up in uniform, and slapping the table in front of him screams "I'd take a flame-thrower to this place!!!!" That should just be Paladino's one and only ad.

In the end, I think these tea partiers have good ideology. I'm with them way more than I'm against them. But they are political neophytes, and as a result, have been unable to stay on message. They've become political voo-doo dolls that the Dems (and the MSM) have been able to use ad-nauseum as a warning. This is what you're getting if you vote GOP. And with some of the weak-kneed moderates who don't like the direction the country is going in, and don't like Obama's policies--but see Paladino/O'Donnell as too extreme--the Dems are getting some traction.

If we were talking about Tarkanian, Murkowski, Castle and Lazio in place of these 4, as the GOP establishment wanted, my guess is the GOP would be on pace to capturing the Senate right now. The first 3 would have one their races, and Lazio would not have. But the real beneficiaries of not having O'Donnell & friends to kick around would have been Kirk, Buck, Fiorina, Rossi, Raese, DioGuardi, McMahon and Toomey.


ManBeast said...

Yeah. It's pretty hard to argue that the tea party isn't a bunch of nuts when you a senatorial candidate has to run an ad saying she's not a witch.


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Always sniffing for the truth

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