The Occasional Observer

OK, so "will" win is a little too strong. But according to this analysis by RCP, you've got to figure she's at least even money to win the race, despite trailing in recent polls by anywhere from 2 to 9 points.

The bottom line? The pollsters are clearly overstating the percentage of the electorate that is likely to be Dem vs R or independent. Their likely voter screens are not capturing newly enthusiastic tea party voters and oversampling the '08 "obama wave voters" whom they assume may stay D this year.

In the polls, Boxer's lead over Fiorina has been the D - R spread, minus 5 points. When you apply the percentage of the early voters, and the -4 spread for the GOP, it leads to an implied lead of one for Fiorina. And when you consider that the early vote has tended to be more D than the total vote, it bodes well for Fiorina.