The Occasional Observer

Thought I'd share some thoughts on the potential crop of new GOP Senators. Picking up on the last blog entry, here's how I evaluate their political savvy, and there chances of getting "entrenched" in their job should they win this November:

1) Candidates who are cake-walking into office in GOP-friendly states, and should have long viable careers in the Senate or beyond: Hoeven, Boozman, Lee, Coats (longevity permitting), Moran.

2) Candidates who are running in purple states, and have run excellent campaigns, and shown the political acumen to enjoy long careers: Raese, Portman, Johnson, Ayotte, and Rubio.

3) Candidates running in purple states, but will probably be vulnerable down the line b/c they're somewhat ideologically out-of-step with their state: Toomey, Paul

4) Candidates running in purple states, but will probably be vulnerable down the line (should they win) b/c they're not grade-A politicians: Angle, Buck, O'Donnell (won't have to be worried about Esmerelda winning, I know).

5) Candidates running in lean-blue states, who have run good campaigns, but will always be vulnerable because of the (R) next to their name: McMahon, Kirk, Rossi, Fiorina, DioGuardi.

Current predicition line with the candidates in #s 2-5 above:

Raese (W)
Portman (W)
Johnson (W)
Rubio (W)
Ayotte (W)
Toomey (W)
Paul (W)
Angle (W)
Buck (W)
O'Donnell (L)
McMahon (W)
Kirk (W)
Rossi (W)
Fiorina (W)
DioGuardi (L)

This would leave the Senate 53-47 GOP; an overall gain of 12 seats for the GOP. This is currently a "best-case scenario", and far more optimistic than RCP poll averages. But I think tea-party and GOP support is being under-polled, across the board.