Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Perfect
Susan Estrich (just thinking of her makes me throw up a little) has come out supporting a potentially good scenario for us that I alluded to previously (see comment #4).
She notes the following:
But I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that I’m getting a little bit nervous.
...what I’m worried about is what’s happening at the grassroots level among Democrats who support one or the other candidate and are coming to like their own candidate more, and the other one (and their supporters) less, the longer this goes on.
I remember what it was like in 1980, when the Kennedy and Carter people still were barely speaking to each other within days of the general election.
That’s what Democrats can’t afford.
My Clinton friends are really no different. It used to be that they would just say they preferred Obama. Lately, it’s getting stronger. They’re getting mad.
As the Clinton-Obama saga drags out, if they don't end up merging forces, it is possible that the supporters of the loser will have such vitriolic hatred of the other candidate that they might be willing to go McCain, especially since he intrinsically has some appeal to Dems and Indies anyway.
She notes the following:
But I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that I’m getting a little bit nervous.
...what I’m worried about is what’s happening at the grassroots level among Democrats who support one or the other candidate and are coming to like their own candidate more, and the other one (and their supporters) less, the longer this goes on.
I remember what it was like in 1980, when the Kennedy and Carter people still were barely speaking to each other within days of the general election.
That’s what Democrats can’t afford.
My Clinton friends are really no different. It used to be that they would just say they preferred Obama. Lately, it’s getting stronger. They’re getting mad.
As the Clinton-Obama saga drags out, if they don't end up merging forces, it is possible that the supporters of the loser will have such vitriolic hatred of the other candidate that they might be willing to go McCain, especially since he intrinsically has some appeal to Dems and Indies anyway.
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5 comments:
I see two end games here that could actually help us. One is if one candidate (presumably Obama) wins the popular vote, state count, and pledged delegate vote, but loses the nomination because of party insiders. That will crush the enthusiasm of the 20-year-old idealist vote. Hurrah!
Scenario 2: Barry wins the nomination but is so bludgeoned by negative advertising, that the public starts to perceive him as a lightweight, as corrupt (Rezko), and as someone who is just as cynically self-serving as most other politicians (nafta-gate).
I think by the time the Dem nomination process is over, the shine will have worn off of Obama, and the media will start critiquing him with the tenacity they should. This will of course help McCain.
I think McCain's most successful approach will be to make sure that Obama is seen for what he is. He is not some true revolutionary outside force that has a pure background and a "new way". He is a standard-issue dyed-in-the-wool liberal politician. His vote proves it, and the fact that he talks out of both sides of his mouth (NAFTA) proves it. Furthermore, he has NEVER been involved in any of the bipartisan bills, so if he really were "the one" who could cross the aisle to get things done, why doesn't his track record reflect that?
Not to mention, I'm sure he has skeletons in his closet beyond even Rezko (which deserves even further scrutiny). Sure, the coke thing is sort of off the table in the new rules of politics since he already spilled it himself. But I'm sure he did a lot of other unsavory stuff while he was on coke that could be leaked.
So I think McCain should be able to discredit Obama's rhetoric and show people that Obama's words are "just words". His actions don't match them.
I heard an interesting point to Fredo's point #1. If Obama is seemingly the Dem choice based on the primaries, but they end up giving the nomination to Hillary (due to superdelegates or allowing FL/MI), will there be riots in the streets? What kind of absolute uproar will there be?
I think that might - might - be the final straw that would cause at least some black voters to become so disenchanted with Dem party that they might consider McCain. Especially since McCain might be more palatable to them then previous Repub candidates. It would be a great opportunity to at least try to attract their vote.
Stop calling him Barry please!
Howard Dean, who is clearly in clinton's bag, is already setting the groundwork for her victory by re-opening the window for elections in FL and MI.