Friday, May 23, 2008
HillBama
Although the likelihood of it happening is probably less than 10%, rumors are escalating that Hillary is in talks with Obama to become his VP. Of course, she has everything to gain and he has everything to lose. Rumors are that for her exit from the race she'd like to be offered VP slot, and also reimbursed for her personal debt to her campaign. Obama's camp and supporters seem firmly against adding her (and importantly Bill) to his ticket, believing she would drag down the ticket. Furthermore, why in the world would Obama want to deal with the headache of having Hillary AND Bill so close to him during his presidency?
My question is, is a HillBama ticket good or bad for the Dems? Three months ago the uncontested answer was that it would represent a basically unstoppable force; there would be almost no way to overcome the combination of their supporters. However, I'm not sure that answer is still true today. Divisions run very deep between them and their supporters, and might cause fractures for them during the campaign. Furthermore, there is even more Hillary fatigue now than three months ago. While she certainly gives Obama a much better shot at winning key swing states like FL and OH, I'd guess there are others he could add to his ticket to accomplish the same end game, without the baggage of Hillary. My guess is that he is now strong enough and she is weak enough that he can keep her off the ticket if that's what he wants.
My question is, is a HillBama ticket good or bad for the Dems? Three months ago the uncontested answer was that it would represent a basically unstoppable force; there would be almost no way to overcome the combination of their supporters. However, I'm not sure that answer is still true today. Divisions run very deep between them and their supporters, and might cause fractures for them during the campaign. Furthermore, there is even more Hillary fatigue now than three months ago. While she certainly gives Obama a much better shot at winning key swing states like FL and OH, I'd guess there are others he could add to his ticket to accomplish the same end game, without the baggage of Hillary. My guess is that he is now strong enough and she is weak enough that he can keep her off the ticket if that's what he wants.
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3 comments:
In retrospect, I guess since Obama is most likely to be the head of a joint ticket we can no longer use "HillBama", but rather should be using "Obamary".
Given the, ahem, "large" figure cut by the ex-President, perhaps we should go with Obillary?
Obama doesn't want Hillary. Obama probably thinks he doesn't need Hillary (see recent SUSA polls showing Obama leading McCain in OH, PA, and VA). Obama won't choose Hillary unless he thinks he has to.
My $.02.