The Occasional Observer

6 comments:

ManBeast said...

Hard to say so early on but here my top three considering both positions and electability (very close Fredo):

1) Hunter
2) Romney
3) McCain

Hunter's commercials on trade policy (big plus) combined with Romney's supposed waffling on abortion and gay rights (big minus) have changed my opinion. I like politicians who are confident (although not intransigent) in their opinions. I'm ok with someone changing his mind if he can explain the change and doesn't flip flop when it's convenient. I'm not a big McCain fan, but he makes my list because I think he's the most electable Republican candidate right now (Guiliani a close second). Hunter may have the advantage (right now at least) of not being that well known nationaly (as far as I know). Romney will have a tough time simply because he is a Mormon. There's lots of time for things to change dramatically. Don't be surprised if I change my mind a few more times.

12/29/2006 12:37 AM

SheaHeyKid said...

To be honest, I haven't looked closely enough at anyone in the running besides Romney, McCain, and Rudy to know right now. With that in mind, Romney is my #1 right now. If I look closer at Hunter, Brownback, or Hagel I might jump them up, so I'll have to start looking into it.

Here are some thoughts on "electability":

1. I hate to say it, but being Mormon will sink Romney. Period. Unfortunate but true. All the recent polls are starting to explicitly reflect this point.

2. I am not at all concerned about the Romney letter to Log Cabin. Why? Because if the only evidence that can be found to claim a candidate is not conservative is a letter he wrote twelve years ago, which was never followed up by actual action, I doubt it's his real position. Keep in mind that for the past several years he was governor of the most liberal state in the country. If he truly wanted to enact gay rights, not only could he have gotten it passed in one second, he would've been heralded as a hero in this state. I don't buy for a second that he's not conservative enough on family and social values. The fact that he wrote a letter which appears to be pure opportunism at the time is unfortunate, but that's politics. However, see #1.

3. I don't see Rudy having any chance once he is held up to the spotlight. I'm shocked that in random polls he continues to do so well since I don't think he'll even wind up in top 3 in primary; are all these people who are later going to change their minds against him simply presently unaware of his stance on social issues? Italian from New York with his position on social issues is a non-starter in Repub primary.

4. Not sure whether that means it's finally McCain's time, or one of the other candidates will rise up. This will be most interesting..

12/29/2006 10:27 AM

Fredo said...

I am actually not that worried about the Mormon factor. As the primaries approach, and Mitt's TV face time increases, the importance of the Mormon sterotype will decrease.

If no other viable candidate surfaces to the right of Romney, I think he has a real chance. Particularly since I think he handled this Log Cabin kerfuffle quite nicely. At first it looked bleak to me, but he's explained two things: (1) in his letter he states he opposes discrimination against homosexuals, and he stands firm behind that opinion; (2) nowhere in that letter does he state that he supports gay marriage, and he has consistently opposed gay marriage.

Romney will be fine (meaning an actual chance, not that he'll win), so long as the field doesn't get more cluttered. If Gingrich runs, or if Brownback, Gilmore or Hunter develop some real momentum and become viable, or some other SoCon gets drafted (Sanford? Pawlenty? Keating?), then Romney is probably sunk.

That said, the next few months may be the most important part of his campaign, even though its early. If he shows momentum, continues making impressive hires and keeps these other SoCons out of the race, I think he'll be in a competitive race with Rudy and McCain.

12/29/2006 12:57 PM

Fredo said...

I should point out that I had some Mormon friends when I was running a casino out in Nevada. Nice people.

There was this one incident with a politician I knew and his lady friend, but, well... nevermind.

12/29/2006 12:59 PM

SheaHeyKid said...

I skimmed some more info on Hagel, Brownback, and Hunter. Not enough to make a solid decision, but all three seem to have solid pros. For now Mitt is still my #1 since I like his position on nearly all issues, I like his track record (lots of people talk a good game but how many have actually done it?), and I think his temperament and charisma are perfect for the job.

The only major unknown that makes me unsure about Mitt is how he would plan to handle Iraq and larger war on terror. He needs to enunciate a stance on this issue, since I think I have some sense of the position of most of the other candidates.

12/29/2006 1:06 PM

dark commenteer said...

Truth be told, I haven't had the time to really sit and look at any of the "new" candidates that I have not previously heard about yet.

That being said, Fredo, you're probably pretty close to the mark right now. Delving too deep into politics makes my head hurt and creates a sense of helplessness because no matter what I do or think about a candidate there is a damned thing I can do about it in this state...kinda like my devotion to the Dolphins.

12/29/2006 3:40 PM