Friday, March 07, 2008

Democrats

If they can't even figure out how to nominate a candidate, how can they run the country? Interestingly, this article in Post indicates why al gore is the only Dem party elder who can break the logjam.

Which way will Dem nominee be selected?
1) Re-votes in FL, MI
2) Use original FL, MI votes
3) Backroom deal gives it to Hillary, with VP option for Obama
4) Backroom deal gives it to Obama, with VP option for Hillary

I say no way it's #2 or #4, I'll bet it's #1. Probably the funds will be taken evenly from Hill and Obama's campaigns, or someone will donate the money, since Dean refuses to have DNC fund it.

3 comments:

Fredo said...

Well, I think this is a 2 stage process. First, they will have to agree on the dispostion of the FL and MI delegates, then the nomination will be determined.

I would agree that a re-vote is the most likely scenario for the two states, but as I told MagBa today, I think it is a frightening precedent. The idea that in the USA we now discard the result of lawful elections on the agreement of a handful of party chieftans is a frightening one.

Once the revote and remaining primaries occur, the back room deal will get cut. How will that play out?

Hill will not willingly endorse Obama under any circumstances. Don't think she's interested in Veep, and feels entitled to the nomination, and views Obama as a usurper.

Obama might be willing to accept the veep role and tack "peace-maker" to his litany of titles. But only if Hill has a legit claim to the nomination (e.g., she's leading in the popular vote or pledged delgate vote) do I think he'd willingly subjugate himself to her on the ticket.

If Obama has the lead in pledged delegates (but not the outright majority of total delegates needed for the nomination) and popular vote after the primaries and MI/FL revotes, then it gets interesting.

I'm guessing you'll see the two at loggerheads for weeks, until we're within 2-3 weeks of the convention. At which point the national party apparatus starts getting very nervous. There will be open courting for superdelegates to switch their allegiance, and the superdelegates will feel the pressure to do so, as the only people who can prevent a party meltdown at the convention. Dean and Gore will likely have to mediate the decision and tell the superdelegates to go one way or the other (one possibility I've heard bandied about is a pre-convention super-delegate-convention that is WTA). My money is on Obama in that circumstance.

Fredo said...

If money is an issue (when is it not?), there's also the chance the Dems could decide to seat the FL delegation based on the existing vote, where at least all the candidates were on the ballot.

There is zero chance of that happening in MI, where some other accord will be reached.

Fredo said...

I should clarify that my money is on Obama if it comes to Dean and Gore mediating a back room deal. If there is a WTA super-delegate convention, then Hill would appear to have the edge based on current projections.

AddThis

Bookmark and Share

Always sniffing for the truth

Always sniffing for the truth

Blog Archive