Monday, March 03, 2008
Hillary
I predict Hillary will do better in the upcoming races than expected by current polls. There have been recent articles questioning the authenticity of Obama's claims of representing "change politics", as well as potential buyer's remorse among Dems. The press is starting to increase their scrutiny of him (lest they be labeled sexist by Hillary's campaign), and I think people will start to wonder if all the pixie dust that is his campaign can really last through November. I'm guessing she still won't win by enough margins to take the nomination (since Dems are proportional in all states), but she'll do better than polls suggest.
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2 comments:
I presume that means you think Hill will win both TX and OH, since the RCP averages have her leading in both (TX by less than a point) and you think she'll beat the polling averages.
We'll see how you do.
I have no effin' idea. I mean, Hill has closed strong in some primaries and the polls seem to be showing some 11th hour momentum for her.
At the same time, Obama has way overperformed his polling in several states, most notably, VA and WI, and seems to have all the wind at his back. The issues that are leading some commentators to suggest "buyers remorse," e.g., NAFTA-gate and the 3AM ad, seem unlikely to be the kinds of things that ultimately drive voting decisions.
I guess we'll see tomorrow.
Hill +3 in TX, +10 in OH. Nice call, SHK.