Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Why I'm nervous about November
Based on current polling, Obama would win if the election were held today. That frightens me, because the headlines could not have been worse for O heading into last week. The AG getting cited for contempt, and the President taking ownership of Fast & Furious with his executive privilege claim. Unlike Watergate, this is a scandal with a body count. A big one. 2 American ICE agents and up to 300 Mexicans killed by the guns we walked to the bad guys. Obama covering up for his guys, reminding the voters that his administration is "politics as usual", not "hope & change"
Then you have the economy. ISM numbers show manufacturing contraction for the first time in 3 years. Unemployment rate moving back up.
Next, the ongoing implosion of European socialism across the pond, reminding American voters that we're only trailing them on the path to insolvency by a few paces.
Finally, the Middle East about to erupt. Whether the blood letting is inevitable, and our hands-off approach justified, I'm not sure. But with the Iranians threatening to seal the strait of Hormuz, and/or launch a pre-emptive strike on Israel; with Turkey militarizing their border with Syria (Iran's puppet); and a new Islamist regime in Cairo causing Israel to reassess their military preparedness; the tinder box is primed to erupt. When the price of oil goes through the roof, Joe Sixpack will be none too pleased with $5.00/gallon gas.
Despite all of this, Mitt trails the EV count and most of the popular vote polling.
I still belive that Mitt will win, but his campaign doesn't seem to be taking advantage of the opportunities that are being afforded to it right now.
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2 comments:
What polls do you look at most closely? For my money Rasmussen is far and away the most accurate at figuring out likely voters and actual election outcome. He's had Romney with a slight lead for many weeks now. Also, almost all major polls have Obama less than 50% which is an important floor for the incumbent. Of course, intrade has obama with a strong and sustained lead.
That said, I'm worried about November too. Mostly because Romney is in a corner on obamacare. If he calls it a tax like GOP establishment wants, he has no position to counter from his own romneycare. Unfortunately the heritage foundation and he were the first to call for individual mandate. I think his best plan is to drop attacking obamacare. As far as I've heard so far, he has failed miserably to piece together a sound bite argument as to why romneycare is different than obamacare, and therefore why obama's policy is bad for the country if it ws good for Massachusetts. His standard line about state's rights vs. federal makes for a good policy position paper, but poor debate strategy. Obama will absolutely slaughter him and make him look foolish.
I don't think he can drop it as an issue. He needs a credible plan for replacing ACA. He should avoid defending Romneycare altogether. Its irrelevant nationslly. a niche product. Criticize whets roundly despised, and that's the ACA.
As far as the polling, if you look st the RCP average, Rasmussen is a pro GOP outlier. In 04 they were great, but if you look at 08 they skewed the results right by several points. I always look at Rasmussen as best case, Gallup, Survey USA and Mason Dixon as middle of the road, and Quinnipiac and PPP as left leaning.