The Occasional Observer

Gallup and Rasmussen show the race approximately even, while a few other polls have shown a > MOE lead for Obama. Why the discrepancy? The Fox and CNN polls that showed high single digit leads for Obama had a party ID split of D+7 to D+10.

Check out this link for an explanation as to why that is unlikely.   Current Gallup polling (which has historically shown itself to be pretty accurate on party ID split, even 3 months out from the election) shows R+1.  If that (or anything close to it) happens, given Mitt is typically carrying independents in most polls, it is difficult to see how Obama wins.