Sunday, September 10, 2006
Allen in '08?
My concerns with Allen have always been about his vulnerability as a campaigner. He is an incumbent conservative on extremely friendly turf in Virginia, and has managed to squander a seemingly insurmountable lead. Survey USA has his lead dropping from +19 in June to +3 in late August. Rasmussen has him going from +20 in April to +11 in July to +5 in August.
I know the entire Macaca incident was blown way out of proportion, and I for one wouldn't want to see his career tarnished because of a comment made to someone who was trying to incite a comment. But an effective campaigner on friendly turf should have been able to keep that story from growing legs. And turned the momentum around. If this is how he performs in his home state, where he has years of connections with the locals and knows the lay of the land, I don't want him getting anywhere near the Presidential nomination in '08. The risk of a poor campaign that turns the oval office over to the Dems is one our county can't afford.
I know the entire Macaca incident was blown way out of proportion, and I for one wouldn't want to see his career tarnished because of a comment made to someone who was trying to incite a comment. But an effective campaigner on friendly turf should have been able to keep that story from growing legs. And turned the momentum around. If this is how he performs in his home state, where he has years of connections with the locals and knows the lay of the land, I don't want him getting anywhere near the Presidential nomination in '08. The risk of a poor campaign that turns the oval office over to the Dems is one our county can't afford.
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2 comments:
I think the Republicans will have to possibly fight two battles in '08: one against the Dem nominee, but possibly also one to prevent a 3rd party candidate from forming. The Repubs will need to defuse the 3rd party situation either by (a) nominating someone who is sufficiently strong on defense and fiscal balance to prevent a 3rd party candidate from gaining traction, or (b) Mehlman and co. will have to do some serious behind the scenes negotiating and/or threatening to prevent this.
Right now Romney is the only candidate I'm aware of who can meet enough criteria of enough Republican voters to meet (a).
I don't think Allen will get very far in the primaries. As Fredo points out, he's not a strong campaigner which makes him an easy target for the MSM. Hopefully the GOP leadership will be realistic early on and ask him to withdraw.