The Occasional Observer

2 comments:

SheaHeyKid said...

Interesting reading, especially the commentary they have below the poll #s. The fact that Giuliani keeps posting so strongly raises an interesting question: how well do the people in these polls represent the cross-section of voters in Republican primary and national election?

Possibility A is that there is not a good correlation, and Giuliani is only leading strongly early because he's one of the more well-known names, and is also on everyone's mind with the recent 5-year anniversary of Sept. 11. In this case, conservatives who care strongly about social issues (on which Rudy's on the wrong side of the equation) will show themselves to be greater in number than assumed from these recent 'net polls, and will wipe out Rudy's lead.

Possibility B is that the groups polled are a good reflection of Republican voters, in which case we can only conclude that social issues seem to be less relevant to upcoming election than does national security. This is reflected in that those who consider themselves pro-life still put Rudy at #2 according to the poll, and at this point I doubt his stance on abortion is still unknown to those who consider themselves pro-life.

It will be interesting to see which case is correct. I expect Gingrich will not run, and Allen will continue to drop as Romney gets more airtime, resulting in a real dogfight between Rudy, Romney, and McCain.

9/14/2006 1:01 PM

Fredo said...

I think the folks who are engaged in these blogger straw polls are more informed than the average voter, so I think we must assume that they are very familiar with Rudy's social positions. While I do think they are extremely important issues among the GOP base, Rudy has that aura of leadership and charisma going for him that seem to make people forget he fails their litmus tests. Can someone knock off his halo? If Rudy's momentum keeps up, he might have the whole thing locked down by New Hampshire, and no one else will even have a chance.

It will be interesting to see if McCain has any juice left at all by the time Iowa's over. I think Romney or Newt have a better chance of turning it into a dogfight. I think the odds are in favor of Newt running, but it's not a lock.

9/15/2006 12:13 AM