Friday, November 17, 2006
China Rising
I don't mean to sound like a broken record, but I continue to assert that China, not N.Korea, Iran or Syria, is the greatest long term threat to the U.S. Take a look at this article.
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3 comments:
Here's more
Someone else I know has been making a similar point, that China is our greatest long-term threat. I think this is true depending on the context. For example, China will be a threat in terms of: large demand for energy competing with our own energy needs; large and cheap (for now) workforce; stealing technology and ignoring patent rights; possible militaristic interests in Asia, especially reclaiming Taiwan.
I don't think China will ever pose a direct military threat to US, b/c I see this situation similar to Cold War. While China may have 3-4 times as many people and soldiers as us, this is somewhat irrelevant: we should not ever consider getting into a war of that nature with China. Rather, if it ever came to that, we should remotely bomb the S out of them, without risking our soldiers' lives. I believe that Chinese leaders, much like old USSR, are not crazy and want to preserve their own lives. So thanks again to MAD, we should be safe.
BUT, where there is a huge possible risk is if they decide to take military action to reclaim Taiwan. Now we might be dragged into another Vietnam-type war we don't want, because of agreements we have in place with Taiwan. This is a big possible problem.
The current Chinese military buildup, IMHO, is a direct prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. This has been their overtly stated goal for decades, and it has only been their perception of US military superiority that has prevented it.
At this point, it is doubtful we could stop a PRC invasion from being successful, unless we had meaningful cooperation from other nations with a vested interest in the region: UK, Australia, Japan, and possibly India.
Our nuclear pact and economic ties with India are efforts to restore a balance of power in East Asia. Encouraging the Japanese to re-militarize should likewise be high on our agenda.
If China decides to "reunite" Taiwan with the mainland, they will expend every resource, human and financial, to ensure victory. They could well break our Pacific Fleet in the process, even if we manage to have a high enemy-ships-sunk-to-US-ships-sunk ratio.
SHK is right, we've staked our national word for over 50 years on protecting Taiwan. We better start assembling allies now if we intend to carry through on that commitment without suffering massive losses--and an unknown outcome--in the process.