Thursday, November 09, 2006
Implications
Frist has proven to be the most useless majority leader, which I've maintained for a long time. He should go. As mentioned earlier by MB, good riddance to Chafee. Repub in name only, he's not a useful vote.
I think Pelosi is going to have to temper her policies until she has a better handle on who these new Dems are. On the one hand I think in principle they are not as left wing as she is. On the other hand, as newly elected junior members of the House are they really going to risk their entire political career by going out on a limb against her whip cracking? This remains to be seen.
Here are two bills you can take to the bank within 1 month of new inaugurations. First, minimum wage will be increased. Dems have made this one of their most visible priorities, and given the overwhelming support this got as a ballot initiative in many states, I don't think Bush will have political capital to veto it. Second, illegal aliens will be granted amnesty, or at the very least (this is probably more likely) they will implement a guest worker program, whatever that means. Most Dems want it, and Bush certainly does so this can be a real "reach across the aisle" moment for them. How touching.
SCOTUS nomination will remain interesting. I think Bush does have some political capital here for two reasons. First, the country is still leaning conservative (note that conservative does NOT equal Republican). Second, one of the few things he is praised for is Alito and Roberts. So I think he might have some latitude here, but we'll see.
I think Pelosi is going to have to temper her policies until she has a better handle on who these new Dems are. On the one hand I think in principle they are not as left wing as she is. On the other hand, as newly elected junior members of the House are they really going to risk their entire political career by going out on a limb against her whip cracking? This remains to be seen.
Here are two bills you can take to the bank within 1 month of new inaugurations. First, minimum wage will be increased. Dems have made this one of their most visible priorities, and given the overwhelming support this got as a ballot initiative in many states, I don't think Bush will have political capital to veto it. Second, illegal aliens will be granted amnesty, or at the very least (this is probably more likely) they will implement a guest worker program, whatever that means. Most Dems want it, and Bush certainly does so this can be a real "reach across the aisle" moment for them. How touching.
SCOTUS nomination will remain interesting. I think Bush does have some political capital here for two reasons. First, the country is still leaning conservative (note that conservative does NOT equal Republican). Second, one of the few things he is praised for is Alito and Roberts. So I think he might have some latitude here, but we'll see.
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5 comments:
The other question is whether the Dems can get out of their own way and actually come together. How strong will their leadership be? It was easy for them the last 6 years - they could unite in their opposition to Republicans, and they also didn't need to stand for a specific policy, just against the Republican one.
But now they have to decide what to pursue. What is their "great" new plan for Iraq? How will they keep the country safe by overturning all of the Patriot Act's provisions? How will they deal with a world that "hates" US intervention as meddling but then bitches every time we don't get involved, calling us selfish? Will they stand together on illegal aliens? Defense spending? Taxes? Or, will they got bogged down in talk of impeachment and investigations of Cheney, Halliburton, etc? I don't think they can afford to do the latter, b/c if two years go by and no useful legislation has come out of their tenure, they will lose in '08.
The problem with our liberal friends is they based their well-meaning ideas on false assumptions.
Raising the minimum wage assumes that businesses will employ the same number of people regardless of the price. Labor is a commodity like anything else. Raise the price and businesses will buy less. I'd rather be employed at $6/hr than unemployed at $7/hr.
A guest worker program doesn't help with illegal immigration. Firstly, one of the biggest problems with the border with Mexico right now is security. Poor Tom Tancredo keeps screaming about this and no one will listen. The Dems also assume that people will actually register as guest workers. If you give them enough incentive to do this, you're giving them too much.
Hopefully some reasonable voices will prevail among new Dems. For example, Jim Webb seems to have the right initial approach:
"The immigration debate is divided into three separate issues. How can we secure our border? What should we do about the 11 million undocumented workers? And, lastly there is the guest worker question. It is necessary to separate out the 3 issues. The primary concern must be securing the border. Immediate action is needed to stem the flow of illegal border crossings. Approaching the issue using an omnibus bill that attempts to solve all three issues simultaneously creates a political stalemate that delays the border security solution. There is a consensus that our border security must be improved and we should act on that consensus as soon as possible. Once the border is secure we can develop a fair solution to other immigration issues." (from http://www.webbforsenate.com/issues/issues.php#immigration)
I'd rather be employed at $6/hr than unemployed at $7/hr.
True enough. But the reason the minimum wage ploy works for the Dems is b/c 4 in 5 workers will get a raise, and the 1 in 5 who loses his job will blame the greedy rich, not the bad policy.
obviously, i'm referring to 4-out-of-5 workers already at the minimum wage level