The Occasional Observer

E.J. Dionne has up a giddy column about how the Dems are building Rove's permanent national majority in reverse, and how the Republicans are turning into Democrat party of the post-reconstruction era, doomed to a narrow demographic and geographic base of support.

In Dionne's estimation, the primary cause of this national shift is suburbia. In the past, suburban voters were lean-Republican, now they are moving to lean-Democrat. His example of choice: Sen. Webb's victory last cycle in VA, and Gov. Warner's advantage over Gov. Gilmore for VA-Sen in '08. Rep. Davis is mentioned as the Republican smart enough to see the trend, the D.C. area suburbanite who wants to beat Rahm Emmanuel at his own game.

I am intrigued by Dionne's analysis. Living in Nassau County, America's first suburb, his theory jibes with what I've observed. Nassau has transformed from a GOP-stronghold to a county with a Dem majority in the Legislature and a Dem County Executive. That the same seems to be happening in border South, Midwest, and even mountain West states (Webb in VA, Tester in MT, Brown in OH) supports his theory as well.

What he doesn't do is gather any actual polling or demographic evidence that supports his thesis. Are the suburbs actually trending Dem permanently, or are the suburbs merely the swing vote that are blowing anti-incumbency, just as they did in 2000 when Bush was elected in part based on suburban an exurban support in the Midwest and Border South? Can an anti-incumbent (read: anti-Bush) Republican appeal to these suburbanites and win as a "change candidate" and disprove Dionne? This is the tactic that Gingrich has already proposed, and Newt has pointed to Sarkozy as a conservative who has shown us the way, having successfully run against a sitting conservative government that was saddled with low favorability ratings.

So hopefully, Jay Cost will pick up Dionne's thesis and run with it, and give us some solid demographic and polling numbers to show whether the suburbs swing towards the Democrats is part of a cyclical anti-incumbency movement, or rather part of a more deeply rooted demographic and ideological shift.