The Occasional Observer

Well, this is obviously the news of the day. Palin resigns, and we don't really know why yet.

My initial reaction was that this basically ends her as a potential Presidential candidate, for the exact reason GOP pollster Whit Ayers highlighted in this quote:

"If you're a serious politician and you're seriously interested in higher office, the best thing you can do is as good a job as possible in the current office," Ayers said. "I suppose it frees her from the responsibility of a full-time job. It does nothing to enhance the image she has that she's not material for the president of the United States."

Since Sarah already had pocket kings if she was running for the GOP nomination (Mitt and maybe Huck are the only Republicans with the name recognition and ready-made donor base that Sarah had), I have a hard time believing she's quitting to "build an organization" to run for President. She could have served out her term, not looked like a flake, and then started building her organization in late '10, in plenty of time for the '12 election. Yet I can't totally discount the fact that she's doing this for political reasons. It may just be a bad miscalculation. After all, Kristol hardly sounds convinced that she's abandoned hopes to run for President in 2012: "It's a huge gamble -- but some of her gambles have paid off in the past."

Still, it's a move that makes little to no sense for that purpose. So if she's not resigning for her national political ambitions, what then?

Possibility 1: Blackmail. Maybe someone has the goods on that "Sarah was unfaithful" rumor that floated around, or some other act of ethical impropriety. Perhaps she was threatened with "resign or I'm leaking this." And to protect her rep, her family, and the state caucus, she gave in.

Possibility 2: Self-indulgence. Maybe she just doesn't like being governor that much. Whether it's the daily drudgery of state administration, personnel decisions, negotiating with the legislature, or some other element of the job, maybe she just likes campaigning more than governing.

Possibility 3: Bad moon arising. Maybe Sarah knows or surmises something bad is coming down the pike for the State of Alaska (e.g., plummeting oil prices affecting the state budget), and wants to hand the hot potato (and the blame) to someone else.

Possibility 4: Feeling victimized. With political opponents putting her in the crosshairs, she's constantly being threatened with new ethics charges, and having raise money to defend herself. Maybe she wants to play the guerilla army and not the regulars for a change. Or, in other words, maybe she wants to go rogue. A woman scorned, etc. etc. [Update: see this story from the NY Post, which shows the type of "enemy" that Palin may be more interested in striking against than she is in her political career.]

Possibilty 5: Get paid. As reported in the Politico, "Leaving the governor’s office at the end of this month leaves her free to travel the country, command large speaking fees, and begin the process of rallying her devotees without pesky home-state opponents criticizing every move." Keeping buzz about a 2012 run high will also increase crowds and fees. [Update: Time points out it will also help her book sales]

Possibility 6: She's running for Senate in AK in 2010. If this were the case, it might make sense to get a head start now. But why wouldn't she announce that as her intention?

Mark Steyn wrote an empathetic entry at the Corner that explains why Sarah might have made the decision, "who needs this?" Basically, Steyn's point is that a normal person wouldn't want to undergo the vitriol that she has had to endure. And that, as a result, "National office will dwindle down to the unhealthily singleminded (Clinton, Obama), the timeserving emirs of Incumbistan (Biden, McCain) and dynastic heirs (Bush). Our loss."

Probably a true statment, but not exactly a new phenomenon.

Sarah supporters are arguing that she can't effectively run in the lower 48 when she's stuck in Alaska, and that she could become the de facto spokesman for the national party if she was camped out in D.C. or another major media center. Still, I'm not sure that would counteract the bad image of Sarah that this resignation is reinforcing. As conservative blogger AC Kleinheider wrote: "Sarah Palin has now succeeded in becoming, if she was not already, pretty much everything her critics have accused her of being."

At the end of the day, I'm not really sure what's motivating Sarah at this point, but I agree with Steyn that, "as a political move for anything other than the 2010 Senate race, today's announcement is a disaster."

Ya had it all kid. And ya blew it.