The Occasional Observer

I heard Bill Clinton chew out a 9/11 conspiracy nut at a Hillary event. He even told him to go away. At least they're not moon-batty enough to buy into that nonsense.

See here.

It seems like we're days away from crowning McCain as the nominee. Insider Advantage has some new 2/5 polls out today, showing McCain with an 8 and 11 point lead over Huck in TN and GA, respectively. McCain's leading Mitt by 8 in IL and Huck by 20 in MN.

So before we close the book on the GOP primaries, let's have a little buyer's remorse in advance (I'd be doing the same thing regardless of whoever actually won the nomination), and take a look at some of the arguments being posted today on R 4 '08 contra-McCain's electability. Check out this and this, remind yourself that people being polled now only think they know the candidates, but could think very differently after months of being bombarded with information.

Here's a taste:

In a whole host of ways, I’m pretty close to John McCain ideologically and nearly supported him at various points this election season. But, the McCain of the last few weeks (who seems now to be simply McCain, with a bigger microphone, and on a larger stage) is a uniquely unappealing character, from his deeply flawed temperament, to his irrational lashing out at capitalism and capitalists, to his utter inability to answer a question substantively. He will lead us to a defeat of historic proportions, current polls notwithstanding.

And this:

Obama raises $32 Million in one month, McCain is in the red. Sorry, McCain will not have the MSM at his back and he has no idea how to run a campaign’s finances.

I won't be voting McCain in the primary, even if it would have been nice to see the GOP choose a candidate before the Democrats.

Novak confirms John Fund's story about McCain's initial lukewarmness towards the nomination of Justice Alito:

[Fund] wrote that McCain "has told conservatives he would be happy to appoint the likes of Chief Justice Roberts to the Supreme Court. But he indicated he might draw the line on a Samuel Alito because 'he wore his conservatism on his sleeve.'" In a conference call with bloggers that day, McCain said, "I don't recall a conversation where I would have said that." He was "astonished" by the Alito quote, he said, and repeatedly tells town meetings, "We're going to have justices like Roberts and Alito."

I found what he could not remember was a private, informal chat with conservative Republican lawyers shortly after McCain announced his candidacy in April 2007. I talked to two lawyers present whom I have known for years and who have never misled me. One is neutral for president, and the other recently endorsed Mitt Romney. Each said they were not Fund's source, and neither knew I was talking to the other. They gave me nearly identical accounts, as follows:

"Wouldn't it be great if you get a chance to name somebody like Roberts and Alito?" one lawyer commented. McCain replied, "Well, certainly Roberts." Jaws were described as dropping. My sources cannot remember exactly what McCain said next, but their recollection is that he described Alito as too conservative.

Poll time! Which will occur on Super Tuesday:

1) McCain will win the most delegates, and his total number will be more than half making him the clear front-runner.

2) McCain will win the most delegates, but his total will be less than half, thus keeping Mitt and Huck's chances alive.

3) Mitt will win the most delegates.

4) Other.

McCain gets a big leg up if he wins NY and NJ, that's ~150 winner-take-all delegates. I think Mitt will do well in CA and win some of their 173, but realistically he probably won't get the half or more he needs. Mitt should take Utah's WTA 36 delegates. My guess is (1), but I'm hopeful enough people saw last night's debate that maybe we get (2).

The Giuliani withdrawal and subsequent endorsement of McCain will certainly help Johnny Mac. I heard a rumor of a Schwartzenegger endorsement of McCain as well. If that happens, it could be the nail in the coffin for Romney.

Please, please, please tell me this is true! Talk about an early Christmas, birthday, and anniversary gift in one.

I made this point to SHK on the phone last night.

ManBeast 3
Starving Econ Grad 1
SHK 1
Fredo 1
DC 0

MB cashes in with his 2 contracts on McMentum in FL. The train has left the station on this one boys, with MB holding a McCain 4-spot up his sleeve on CA and another McCain contract as well (PA?).

So long as Johnny Mac manages to get through the debate tonight without falling asleep, or cutting & snorting lines on his podium, I think this one is all sewn up.

The MSM should have been careful what they wished for. It's been clear the past several months, and in particular the last few weeks, that John McCain is who they want on Repub side. No doubt they want his run to end on Nov. 4 '08 and will do everything in their power to cut him down once he's nominated, but unfortunately for them he's not going to lose in the general. I am confident that McCain will beat Hillary and Obama, not just based on the head-to-head polls, but also based on people I know who would tend to vote for Dem and have said they will vote for McCain if he's the nominee. The MSM has created McCain, and soon they will get to watch him destroy their beloved Dem nominee.

McCain's win in FL came because of strong support from seniors and Hispanics, unfortunately probably because of his non-conservative stances on prescription drug companies and illegal immigration (exit polls indicated only a minority wanted deportation of illegals).

However, if McCain is the eventual party nominee, I'll take him 100 times over Hillary or Obama. At least with McCain you're getting conservative positions on a lot of other issues of importance, whereas you're getting the worst position on every issue with the Dems.