Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Mad Money Update #3
ManBeast 3
Starving Econ Grad 1
SHK 1
Fredo 1
DC 0
MB cashes in with his 2 contracts on McMentum in FL. The train has left the station on this one boys, with MB holding a McCain 4-spot up his sleeve on CA and another McCain contract as well (PA?).
So long as Johnny Mac manages to get through the debate tonight without falling asleep, or cutting & snorting lines on his podium, I think this one is all sewn up.
Starving Econ Grad 1
SHK 1
Fredo 1
DC 0
MB cashes in with his 2 contracts on McMentum in FL. The train has left the station on this one boys, with MB holding a McCain 4-spot up his sleeve on CA and another McCain contract as well (PA?).
So long as Johnny Mac manages to get through the debate tonight without falling asleep, or cutting & snorting lines on his podium, I think this one is all sewn up.
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January
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9 comments:
And as predicted--dead last for me...I shoulda gone totally goofy and picked Paul or Hunter.
It wouldn't have been any less embarassing
You came within a hair of taking over 1st place last night, DC. If 3% of voters switched from McCain to Mitt, you would have cashed in on your two-spot and MB would have been stuck on 1.
One big factor in me betting big on McCain is name recognition. Although the contributors and readers of OccObs are well educated about the candidates and make decisions based on issues, many voters out there don't know who Mitt Romney is. This will be an even bigger factor in McCain's favor on Super Tuesday. Heavily campaigning in individual states just won't be an option. I predict big wins for McCain on Tuesday.
McCain continues to lose to Mitt among self-identified conservatives, even in FL.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Unfortunately, in all primaries so far, conservatives have been outnumbered by moderates, and in certain states actual Inds or Dems.
Romney may lead among the right of the GOP, but the you must remember, the left of the GOP is still right of center. Just like 2004 when John Kerry appealed to the left of the Dems and lost the general, Romney will appeal to the right of GOP and lose the general. As Fredo said, I'd much rather have McCain in the White House the any Dem even if my views are more aligned with Romney's. You can't let perfect get in the way of good.
In either a McCain-Clinton or a McCain-Obama matchup, I like McCain's chances. Conservatives will either vote for McCain or not vote at all (barring some unforseen conservative 3rd party candidate). Many moderates/independents will vote FOR McCain. Many more will vote for him as a vote against Clinton because they dislike her (or unfortunately but realistically because she is a woman) or against Obama because of inexperience (or unfortunately because he is black). Gender and racial bias is wrong, but it's foolish to think it doesn't exist and won't effect the election.
I actually think Obama has a better chance against McCain than Clinton does. Enough of the MSM dislike her not to covertly (or like in recent years, overtly) campaign for her. She is polarizing and McCain will tear her apart in debates. As previously observered on OccObs, Obama has been so general, he lets people fill in the blanks to make him whatever they want him to be. McCain will have to pin him down to specifics. What kind of change does he want? What exactly will he do? How exactly will he do it?
I agree with MB that unfortunately bias will play a part in the election. To some extent it already has, I think anti-Mormon bias has hurt Mitt greatly.
McCain is definitely the most electable of our candidates, and I think we want Hillary as the opponent because she is the most polarizing and turns the most people off. McCain-Obama will be tougher, but I think in the end McCain will prevail with his experience making Obama look underqualified as of today to lead the country. I think in just one or two debates, by talking in specifics on policy issues, McCain will demonstrate his command of the issues, thereby making Obama's inexperience even more apparent.
McCain now has solid leads over both shrillary and obama according to latest rasmussen poll. Dems have got to start to be worried...
Another thing in McCain's favor for the GOP nomination vs. Romney is his relationships with the GOP leadership. He'll get much more support and many more important endorsements as evidenced by the Crist & Martinez endorsements. Plus, he's made a number of appearances with Joe Leiberman. I don't see and Republicans appearing with Clinton or Obama.