The Occasional Observer

This CNN poll says only McCain has a shot against Hill and Obama. Granted, this poll (as for all head-to-head general election polls this early) should be taken with a grain of salt because it suggests that Huck, Mitt, and Rudy would lose by double digits, and does anyone really believe that either the Repub or Dem candidate will lose by more than a few points? (That is, assuming no legit 3rd party candidate runs.)

There are also early indications that young voters will turn out in significantly higher numbers than ever, based on primaries and their involvement in campaigns. Of course, the road to the White House is paved with the remains of candidates who thought they would win on the backs on young voters, only to find out that they don't actually show up to vote when it comes down to it. BUT, if indeed this turns out to be the year of young voter turnout, that can only mean bad things for the Repubs. Most young voters go for Obama, followed by Hill, and only McCain among Repubs polls well among young voters.

I think the Republicans are a real long shot in this election, and for them to have any chance requires that they settle on a candidate a LOT sooner than the convention to have as much time to build support as possible. But, that seems unlikely as of now.

I can only say that there is a 99% chance taxes and spending will go up in the next 4 years. I only have faith in Mitt, Thompson, and Rudy to not do that, and they seem unlikely to win the general. Whether Obama or Hillary or Huck wins, and even McCain, you can all but count on tax increases and probably spending increases as well.