Saturday, January 19, 2008
McCain wins SC!
Well, SC has been the bellwether in the GOP presidential race. Now McCain has the McMentum.
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3 comments:
It will be interesting.. Mitt still has a good lead in # of delegates, but will run into problem that based upon his initial strategy he didn't spend much time in CA or FL. He was banking on wins in IA, NH, and MI being too strong to overcome and carrying him to victory in those states also. But in reality with such a chaotic field, the edge has to go to Rudy who campaigned there and McCain who is much more of a household name.
One thing is sure: I can see absolutely no way the Fred could win the nomination, so he should drop out, and I really just don't see how Huck can win either. To be honest, all both of these guys has done is put the Repub party in a worse position for general election by delaying the inevitable decision between Mitt, McCain, and Rudy. Both Fred and Huck joined late, IMO neither was a legitimate shot to win, and now are probably going to hang on longer than they should. It would really behoove the party to at a minimum force Fred out; how he can possibly justify staying in with so many poor finishes in so many varied states is beyond me.
As to Huck, it is clear he is the most one dimensional of the nominees, consistently winning only the evangelical vote and no other. In contrast, McCain and Mitt have pulled from various groups and have broader appeal. That Huck couldn't win SC, even with Mitt splitting off votes from McCain, tells me that he can't put together a broad enough coalition to win primary and certainly to win general.
You can't say that Huck's been a roadblock without a real chance to win. Until last night's results, he had as plausible a path to the nomination as anyone. Plus, if Fred had dropped out after Iowa, as had been initially reported at the Politico, Huck would likely have won last night.
I'm sure he'll hang in for an attempted Hail Mary in FL, which probably won't come to fruition.
If McCain looks to be sewing things up, maybe he drops out at that point. My guess? He probably stays in for Super Tuesday, to see if he can win some delegates in the South and how fractured the field is.
Fred will be out before FL, I'd imagine.
Oh, and Huck didn't join the field late. He was one of the first candidates. Think announced back in Feb. or something, and had been running prior to his official announcement a la Mitt.
He just didn't spike in the polls and name recognition until late.