Monday, January 07, 2008

Is it already over?

Monday, January 07, 2008 | Posted by SheaHeyKid | | Edit Post
I want to pick up on a point Fredo made in an earlier post that I had heard several pundits also discuss before the Iowa caucuses, which is the voter turnout by party. The overall turnout for both parties was far larger than in the past, but the Dems blew away Repubs by over 2:1. This, plus the fact that Obama is surging in popularity suggests to me that the Republicans may have no chance of winning in '08. The reason I say this is because if Dem voters are so desperate for change in Washington that they are willing to rally behind the most inexperienced candidate from either party just because he represents "change", I don't think we'll be able to overcome their turnout.

McCain and ironically Thompson may be the only two who have a shot. McCain because he would steal votes from the other side, and Thompson because policy-wise he is in broad agreement with Republican base (although he has run an uninspired campaign to this point). I think the other candidates might not garner enough support: Romney and Rudy might result in too many evangelicals staying home; while Huck would not turn out FiCon support.

That said, Mitt is still my #1 because I think he'd put the right policies in place and could get something done. I think Thompson might also be fine, but I can't get fired up about somebody who to this point doesn't seem fired up himself. I'm leery of McCain because he has a maverick wild-card streak in him, and he's opposed the Republican base too often. I think Rudy would be great economically and with GWOT, but not sure what he'd do on social policies. Finally, while I think many of Huck's proposed policies on his website sound reasonable, I just think we need someone with more experience. For me, the stakes are too high with GWOT and other issues to simply elect someone who "seems like a nice guy" or is "someone I could relate to". What I want is someone who stands for the same things I do, knows more than I do, and has the experience and leadership to get things done.

2 comments:

Fredo said...

Mitt would make a great President. He's able to move from the big picture to details seamlessly. While I'm not convinced his current platform reflects his core convictions, that's less important to me than whether I can trust him to follow through on his promises. On which point I remember a story Mitt told, I can't remember whether it was a stump speech or a debate. But he said that he had a list of his campaign promises when he ran for Governor, and totaled 80- or 90-something promises. He then said he'd checked off the list near the end of his term and had completed all but a handful of them. Mitt's a checklist kind of guy, and thoroughness means he actually would have a chance of taming the bureaucracy and of fulfilling his promises.

I am fairly confident that, as a candidate, Mitt is a loser in the general election. He's left himself open to so many charges of opportunism that his political credibility (or what's left of it) will be in tatters by the time the Dems finish their dirty work. I honestly don't think, in the end, it will have much to do with the moromonism. It will have to do with the fact that the average citizen will see him as too slippery, too glib, too negative, and too opportunitic. And too, what's the word I'm looking for, rich. He's rich and seems rich. Like a member of the New England Prep School elite. He seems a little like the rich kids in Scent of a Woman that you root against.

His campaign style, with all the comparo ads, will (and has been) pigeon holed as the "same old politics of destruction" in a cycle where people want fluff (see Obama, B). Not saying I think that, just that too many folks do.

1/07/2008 9:00 PM
Fredo said...

I would say our best bet in the general is McCain, but the bolder call would probably still be Huck. He's the guy who would change the game, and scramble the playing field in a cycle where we're running uphill.

He has his weaknesses, yes, but he's clearly the strongest campaigner, and has themes that none of the other GOP candidates do that are resonating in this political environment.

William Kristol, perhaps one of the least likely Republicans to support Huckabee (who I met a few weeks ago, BTW), made a similar and more complete case as to Huckabee's electability today. Check it out.

1/07/2008 9:04 PM
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Always sniffing for the truth

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