Friday, January 25, 2008
What's next?
Let's get hypothetical for a moment, assume no brokered convention, and assume Mitt or McCain locks up the nomination soon. Have there been any rumors about who they might select as running mates? Any chance that one of the candidates would get tapped as VP, or more likely will it be someone outside the field? (My guess is the latter; except for Huck, Fred, and Hunter I can't see any of the other candidates interested in taking a secondary role.)
If McCain is the nominee, do you think he would go so far as to pick Lieberman as VP? I'd have to think it's a likely possibility. If it's Mitt, I'm not sure at all who he'll pick. He could go one of two ways: pick someone with more solid SoCon creds to ensure he energizes that part of the base, or pick someone less conservative in the hopes of stealing Ind votes. My guess is that he'll assume that SoCons would rather vote for him than stay at home and help Hillary be our next president, so if he takes that bloc for granted, he will go the other way and try to steal Ind votes via a McCain-like VP.
I also think it will be interesting to see if Mitt (assuming he wins) picks someone from inside or outside Washington. On the one hand, if he picks someone with relatively little DC experience he can run on a "We're the successful business outsiders who will fix what Washington insiders cannot" platform. On the other hand, will general election voters be nervous if he has too little "inside" political experience on his ticket? Might he be better served to take an experienced insider to counter any claims sure to come from Hillary that an outside ticket just won't have the experience to navigate tricky political waters? I can see her trying to crush the position that business experience will translate into (more) successful political results. After all, she'll say, G.W. Bush was the first president with an MBA...
If McCain is the nominee, do you think he would go so far as to pick Lieberman as VP? I'd have to think it's a likely possibility. If it's Mitt, I'm not sure at all who he'll pick. He could go one of two ways: pick someone with more solid SoCon creds to ensure he energizes that part of the base, or pick someone less conservative in the hopes of stealing Ind votes. My guess is that he'll assume that SoCons would rather vote for him than stay at home and help Hillary be our next president, so if he takes that bloc for granted, he will go the other way and try to steal Ind votes via a McCain-like VP.
I also think it will be interesting to see if Mitt (assuming he wins) picks someone from inside or outside Washington. On the one hand, if he picks someone with relatively little DC experience he can run on a "We're the successful business outsiders who will fix what Washington insiders cannot" platform. On the other hand, will general election voters be nervous if he has too little "inside" political experience on his ticket? Might he be better served to take an experienced insider to counter any claims sure to come from Hillary that an outside ticket just won't have the experience to navigate tricky political waters? I can see her trying to crush the position that business experience will translate into (more) successful political results. After all, she'll say, G.W. Bush was the first president with an MBA...
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4 comments:
I doubt McCain would pick Lieberman. Tim Pawlenty, Rudy Giuliani, Fred, Mel Martinez, Condi Rice, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, Tom Ridge, George Pataki, all possible choices.
My guess is Huck, Hunter and Romney are not on the list of possibles. Despite the endorsement, I doubt he'd pick someone as conservative as Tom Coburn.
Pawlenty would be my choice of that list.
Some interesting possibilities. I don't see Rudy being interested in being anything but top dog, especially with as much money as he's already made over the past 6 years from book and speaking engagements. Lindsey Graham would fit the bill, since like McCain he's been anti-Republican establishment for a while. Plus, he'd help carry the south and I think would play well to Ind and maybe even Dem voters. While Condi Rice is richly deserving, my guess is that no one will touch any of the "Bush establishment" with a 10-foot pole. Especially not McCain, since it would ruin his big advantage among Ind voters.
I could also see Pataki and Ridge fitting in with McCain's agenda and positions.
I wonder about Mitt, I think it will be interesting to see which way he thinks benefits him most in the general.
Mitt's veep possibilities. If he sews up the nomination, and Hill is the Dem nominee, I could easily see Rudy. It gets a hero quotient on the ticket, someone who keeps the terrorist threat close at mind, and reminds voters why they need a hawk. Rudy won't help Mitt capture a state, however, and he has some bones in the closet. He is an "outsider" which fits Mitt's theme against returning Hill to DC, who Mitt says is "Washington to the core."
Pawlenty seems very possible as well, with his pragmatic, spending-control balanced budget (if not supply side) approach to managing MN. Along with his solid SoCon credentials and key swing-state status. Don't know what his closet looks like: he hasn't been vetted by that national media yet.
Ridge would be possible. An experienced hand who knows what needs to happen in an emergency, with a long governorship on his resume in a key swing-state. Again, as SHK points out, would anyone dare pick a Bush insider?
DeMint (Mitt endorser) or Sanford are possible as well, but I doubt Mitt would go that conservative.
Bill Frist might be another direction he'd go, a "three-legs of the stool" Republican who's still seen as establishment and experienced in the spotlight. His PAC is well funded which could also make him desirable. But Frist is an insider, and Mitt's playing up the fact he hasn't been in Washington.
Crist could help carry a key state, but his resume isn't long enough.
Jon Kyl would be possible as well. I'd love that pick, but it wouldn't quite go with the "outsider" shtick Mitt is playing up right now.
I almost think that Pawlenty is the most likely regardless of who wins the nomination, assuming Mitt can get over the fact that Paw endorsed McCain early. Mitt seems to value pragmatism, so I don't think that would stop him from offering Paw the post.