Thursday, January 03, 2008
Live Blogging the Cawkeye
I'll be occasionally weighing in down in the comments. Feel free to join me.
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2008
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January
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- A Small Comfort
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- Heard by Fredo while in Vegas:
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- FL
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- Mad Money Update #2!
- Fred Drops Out
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- Live Blogging the Cawkeye
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January
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49 comments:
Already some new information from this blogger teleconference.
Kavon has stated that the Monday "bombshell" will be that Mitt Romney's campaign was behind the push polling in New Hampshire that was disparaging Mormonism and talking up John McCain (attempting to frame McCain as a religious bigot).
Romney folks on the call are talking up their GOTV effort. 100's of folks working phone banks since yesterday to ensure they get supporters out to caucus. Seem to think they have an overwhelming GOTV advantage over Huckabee.
Watching the GOP voters in Carroll Iowa file in for their caucus on C-Span 2. Huge line there. Sounds like the turnout is going to be strong.
I'm gonna take a stab that a huge turnout, far beyond the ususal politically active class, is probably a good sign for Huck and, to a lesser extent, for Paul.
Now discussing who has the most to gain and lose.
Kavon says: McCain can cement his momentum with a 3rd place finish. Fred's in trouble with anything less than a 3rd place finish.
Just heard a comment on FNC coverage that it will come out the Romney passed legislation in MA that included state funding for abortions. Ouch.
Justin Hart from MyManMitt:
Just got off the phone with Jason Bonham whose with Mitt himself. Jason said that the Caucus site they were at was completely overrun, they didn't have enough paper or space for the number of folks who came into caucus.
Speculating on who Hunter will endorse when he drops out. Michael says that he'll likely go to Fred if he stays in the race.
Waukee was the caucus site where Jason Bonham said they were overrun.
Matt C says over at Race 4 2008 that Mitt's already got a lockdown on high 30's if the GOTV gets out the people that they are expecting (see here)
A further update from Jason in Waukee: apparently people are leaving the caucus site without voting becuase it's such a madhouse that they can't inside and don't want to wait in the cold.
Erick at RedState thinks that based on turnout, Obama and Huckabee are sitting pretty.
On C Span 2 the caucus site at Carroll IA has just begun the official session.
It's really strange seeing officials that are leading the voting wearing "Rudy" stickers and signs from other campaigns. Cawkeye and primaries are just two different animals.
FNC reports initial reports indicate 33% Huck, 23% Mitt, 14.5% Fred with McCain a close 4th. Obama leads Hillary who lead Edwards. There's still a long way to go.
Got a call from someone named "Ed" on the ground at a precinct in IA. There were over 70 people caucusing. It's a very rural precinct.
He stated the results were:
Romney 18
Huckabee 21
McCain 16
Fred 8
Paul 12
Rudy 1
Some folks didn't vote
Edward Roberts was the name of the gentlmen who called in results.
Got beverage, MB?
The top three Dems seem to be virtually tied with about 20% of the first round in.
Edwards 34
Clinton 32
Obama 31
Don't know where this is coming from (statewide or precinct), but that's the info Michael got.
MB,
If they're tied at 20 after the first round, Edwards is going to win. He's going to carry a pluralality of the fringe candidate supporters who reposition.
Now I do. Good idea. Mmm...Toasted lager. What's in Fredo's glass? Or should I ask what kind of bourbon?
With 15% reporting, Fox News shows
Huck 36
Mitt 23
Fred 14
Romney 12
Des Moines precinct, via CNN:
McCain 55
Romney 39
Thompson 21
Huck 19
Rudy 14
Paul 13
FNC has this:
Edwards 33%
Clinton 32%
Obama 32%
with 26% in
Huckabee 36% !!
Romney 23%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%
with 15% in
FNC has already projected for Huck
Just following your lead, Beasty. finally tore myself away from the couch long enough to pour a nice Turkey 101 over rocks in a snifter.
Cheers, amigo.
Mitt on FNC is being magnanimous towards Huck in reaction to the projection. Will it make him look calculating or gracious?
Guess it's going to be a short night. Fox and CNN already called it for Huckabee.
Romney is giving a concession speech, of sorts.
gobble gobble
Yeah, Beasty, those exclamation points are warranted. Winning by 10+ points is big.
The race for 3rd is still in play, and will make a big difference.
Wow. Ron Paul with 11%!
Ain't no Rare Breed, that's for sure.
Beasty: just wait for New Hampshire. He could break 20%.
3rd is big. I predict if Fred takes the bronze, he stays in through SC. If McCain does, Fred drops out after IA. I know it's a pretty obvious predition, but hey WTH.
Mitt catches a break tonight with the Dems being so tightly packed. It's going to be down to the wire and suck up all the media oxygen.
I wonder if the Guiliani campaign asked their supporters to vote for another candidate since they punted on IA anyway. The FNC analysts are talking about backroom deals on the Dem side since they have more bearing because of the process.
No way Rudy would have directed supporters elsewhere. It's one thing not to campaign actively, but coming in 6th for the former frontrunner is embarrasing. It's going to be tough for Rudy to get the train back on the tracks.
I still don't get how Fred even gets 13%. What's the appeal?
Fred is the most consistently conservative candidate policy wise, from a Reagan conservative perspective (judicial conservative, muscular foreign policy, federalism). He's just run a terrible campaign and has looked every bit the old man who is lazy and wants the people to come to him, instead of to win over voters.
Conservative or not. I don't want someone as president who doesn't want it bad enough to even look like he does.
How's the lager treating you?
It was good. Waiting for a Sam Adams to chill. How's the bourbon?
CNN and Fox called the Dem race for Obama!
wow.
FNC just called it for Obama with 35%. They have both Clinton & Edwards with 31%. I wouldn't be too surprised to see it change.
That's huge. Now let the chips fall. Obama is now the fave for the Dem nominee and probably the fave for the presidency. The GOP race will now be viewed in the shadow of that possiblity.
That's a pretty bold statement Fredo. I think that conclusion is very premature.
Signing off, y'all.
Peace.
Interesting panel on Fox tonight: Laura Ingraham, Susan Estrich, and Greta van Susteren.
3 women on the panel, and it's a great mix.
I have a hard time thinking of a more grating voice and a more annoying Dem pundit than susan estrich, and that says a lot considering they field the likes of carville and others!