The Occasional Observer

Despite Rudy's slide and aforementioned hit on "electability," he's stil viable and could win the nomination. He's taken a huge, and probably unwise, gamble by not participating in the early states. The other candidates are sucking up all the oxygen and Rudy's support is plummeting. But he hasn't been "defeated" yet because he hasn't really been trying, so he'll get his shot in FL or maybe even keep his powder dry for 2/5.

The real reason he still has a shot is because he can just flat-out handle himself in difficult situations, under duress. Check out this story. What could've been an ugly flare up, with the potential to further alienate the GOP base, was swatted away with ease, and with the crowd chanting their approval:

DERRY, N.H. -- Toward the conclusion of a town hall meeting here, Rudy Giuliani called on a woman to ask the last question when a man stood up and screamed, "What about the 50 million?" He continued to scream at Rudy about his pro-choice views while Rudy smiled and urged the woman to continue her question and ignore the protester. The woman screamed at the protester, "You are out of line. Sit down." Then the crowd started chanting, "Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!..." Security came and escorted the screaming man out. As he was being dragged off, he was yelling, "All these children are dying and you want to continue this holocaust." After the protester was removed from the room, a smiling and composed Rudy said, "It's okay, I'm from New York." The crowd laughed and cheered.

Anyone reading this blog probably knows I abhor Rudy's pro-choice stance, and that I rank him 5th out of the 5 viable candidates on my "who-to-support" list for that very reason.

But that's not the point I'm making here. A successful candidate at the national level has got to be able to deflect the harshest criticism, and Rudy never seems uncomfortable when the spotlight is squarely on him. Almost all victorious candidates have "a moment" that comes to show that they can rise to the moment. Usually, such moments come at unexpected and challenging times. I think it could be argued that Obama just had his "moment" a few weeks ago, when, with Hillary mocking him in the background, he coolly looked across at her and informed her that she can work for him when he is President. I think of Reagan's "I paid for this microphone" comment, or Bush 41 in the snows of New Hampshire. While not an election moment, W taking the bullhorn on the rubble of the WTC was another example of spontaneous leadership. Rudy is capable of those kinds of moments, probably more so than any other candidate in the GOP field.

If Rudy doesn't win the nomination, his passive strategy will be maligned forever. With his pure political talent, impressive resume and formidable early lead, he should've been able to put the hammer down in NH and MI.