Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Fredo's Mad Money Challenge
OK. You see the intrade contract prices from the previous post.
You get $250 to pick all the contracts you want. You can buy multiple contracts on the same primary, if you want.
If you ought the priciest contracts in each race, you'd be up to $415 or so in cost, so you're going to have to go for some value plays.
Best of luck, gentlemen! I'll go first in the comments, but I think it's best if you make your picks looking at mine, so we don't end up gaming each other picks. That would give the person who goes last an advantage over the person who goes first. Try to make your picks ASAP so the later pickers don't get the advantage of more info.
I'll provide an example below:
Joe Schmo could buy:
NJ-Giuliani 85
NJ McCain 14
NV-McCain 45
SC-Field 61
CA-Romney 15
MI-Field 30
$250 and he's tapped out.
You get $250 to pick all the contracts you want. You can buy multiple contracts on the same primary, if you want.
If you ought the priciest contracts in each race, you'd be up to $415 or so in cost, so you're going to have to go for some value plays.
Best of luck, gentlemen! I'll go first in the comments, but I think it's best if you make your picks looking at mine, so we don't end up gaming each other picks. That would give the person who goes last an advantage over the person who goes first. Try to make your picks ASAP so the later pickers don't get the advantage of more info.
I'll provide an example below:
Joe Schmo could buy:
NJ-Giuliani 85
NJ McCain 14
NV-McCain 45
SC-Field 61
CA-Romney 15
MI-Field 30
$250 and he's tapped out.
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13 comments:
I'll take:
MI-Mitt 20 (doubt it, probably JMac, but nice price)
NV-McCain 44.8
SC-Field 61
SC-Thompson 1.2
FL-Field 35
FL-Thompson 3
CA-McCain 33
PA-McCain 38
NJ-McCain 14 (doubt it, probably Rudy, his contract's too pricey)
$250 on the head
Here's my take:
MI-Field 20
MI-Romney 15.1
SC-Field 62
SC-Thompson 0.8
SC-Romney 1.8
NV-Field 17
FL-Giuliani 39.5
FL-Thompson 0.4
PA-McCain 22
PA-Field 10.5
CA-Giuliani 49
CA-Field 10
That leaves a bit of change: $248.10. If I could I'd triple down on SC Thompson.
I'll take the following:
SC-FIELD 61
MI-Mitt 20
NJ-Rudy 85
PA-Rudy 69.5
PA-Mitt 10
SC-Thompson 3x1.2=3.6
MI-Thompson 9x0.1=0.9
Total = $250
I am most confident in top 4, basically chose bottom 3 to round out to $250.
Here are my picks:
MI-Mitt 20 (I agree, good price)
SC-Fred 1.2
FL-McCain 2x 28.9 = 57.8
CA-McCain 4X 33 = 132
PA-McCain 38
McMentum with $1 to spare
I feel like Peter Griffin--"That's the smartest thing anyone's ever said about anything..."
I have no clue about all of this but if I get some time I may give this a shot too.
My bold prediction--some combo of fredo, SHK, and MB go 1-2-3, with DC in a solid 4th.
I am the Fred Thompson of this competition...
Of course, my prediction is based on current competitors. If anyone else jumps in here, DC will be making a drop in the standings...
NJ-Rudy x 2 170
PA-Rudy x 1 69.5
Fl-Mitt x 2 10
MI-Fred x 5 .5
Booyah!
DC, the unpredictable way things have gone so far, you have as good a chance as any of us. I also don't know jack about this stuff, I just pretend to.
Always bet on black!
Oh, you guys are clever. I didn't think about doubling or tripling down on the same contract.
You boys are good, I tell you.
That's funny, I thought I got the idea from your original post, but I just re-read it and realized what you were saying is different. You mentioned "you can buy multiple contracts on the same primary...", which I quickly read as "multiple contracts on the same candidate in the same primary".
Bad early sign for Mitt in MI: only a very small crowd (150 people) showed up for his first meeting, even though room was set up for twice that capacity.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080111/D8U3SL400.html