Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Romney lowering the bar in SC
This is a truly shocking move. Mitt must really believe he can't win in SC, b/c winning there would have solidified him as the frontrunner and given him serious momentum. It also would have shattered the idea that he can't win in the South.
Instead, he seems willing to play into the idea that he can't win in SC, and wants to focus on states where he has a "strategic advantage." All well and good, but NV is a caucus with no track record of being meaningful in the GOP primary calendar, while SC has proved necessary for virtually every modern-era candidate that went on to earn the Republican nomination.
Assuming Mitt feels he can't win in SC, I guess he's found a new strategy. After his success in MI harping on his executive and business experience, and promising it would help him right the ship in shaky economic times, perhaps he's finally going to embrace the "technocrat" role that he always seemed suited for (instead of the Reagan-redux/3-legged stool candidate).
If this is where he's headed (ceding SoCon territory for Giuliani territory), it would be another sign that the nomination fight will drag out for a long time. Mitt getting rust belt, western, and some northeastern support, and leaving McCain and the SC SoCon survivor (Huck or Fred) to fight it out elsewhere.
I guess you could say it's one last Mitt flip-flop: after running from his moderate track record b/c the party lacked a perceived SoCon standard bearer (if you take the cynical view of Mitt's conversion), Mitt's now determined at the 11th hour that it's the moderate wing of the party with the biggest power vacuum (now that Rudy seems to be in free-fall).
We'll see if SC proves an aberration, or if this is part of a larger strategy for Mitt: confronting Rudy for moderate states and then hoping he can win the nomination late against whoever consolidates the conservative states (assuming someone actually does).
Here's a link to the story. Key paragraph:
Instead, he seems willing to play into the idea that he can't win in SC, and wants to focus on states where he has a "strategic advantage." All well and good, but NV is a caucus with no track record of being meaningful in the GOP primary calendar, while SC has proved necessary for virtually every modern-era candidate that went on to earn the Republican nomination.
Assuming Mitt feels he can't win in SC, I guess he's found a new strategy. After his success in MI harping on his executive and business experience, and promising it would help him right the ship in shaky economic times, perhaps he's finally going to embrace the "technocrat" role that he always seemed suited for (instead of the Reagan-redux/3-legged stool candidate).
If this is where he's headed (ceding SoCon territory for Giuliani territory), it would be another sign that the nomination fight will drag out for a long time. Mitt getting rust belt, western, and some northeastern support, and leaving McCain and the SC SoCon survivor (Huck or Fred) to fight it out elsewhere.
I guess you could say it's one last Mitt flip-flop: after running from his moderate track record b/c the party lacked a perceived SoCon standard bearer (if you take the cynical view of Mitt's conversion), Mitt's now determined at the 11th hour that it's the moderate wing of the party with the biggest power vacuum (now that Rudy seems to be in free-fall).
We'll see if SC proves an aberration, or if this is part of a larger strategy for Mitt: confronting Rudy for moderate states and then hoping he can win the nomination late against whoever consolidates the conservative states (assuming someone actually does).
Here's a link to the story. Key paragraph:
While several Republican presidential hopefuls -- including Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee -- are focused on winning here in South Carolina on Saturday in order to emerge as their party's front-runner, Romney is spending just one day in the Palmetto State before leaving to campaign in Nevada, which holds its primary on the same day. All the other Republican candidates are skipping Nevada in favor of South Carolina, a traditional primary powerhouse.
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2 comments:
Romney actually already made this decision before the MI vote. He decided to pull his ads there and focus all his time on MI. Then, when he won MI, apparently he put a little money back into SC ads, but he never put a strong support team on the ground there and I think he ceded this state a long time ago. The bottom line is that he has a choice to make: (1) Do I (Mitt) accept the conventional wisdom that no matter what message I bring, SC will not go for me and the polls reflect that, or (2) Do I ignore the polls and think that if I spend enough time and money in SC, I can pull off the upset of upsets.
Now, certainly if by some miracle he were to win SC, there is no doubt he is the clear front-runner, and that probably locks it up. But I think there is a less than 1% chance he could do that. That state is clearly going for one of Huck, McCain, or Fred, and I don't think there's anything Mitt could ever do to change that. I still think he runs into the Mormon issue in strong evangelical states, and in a primary with an alternative candidate there's no way around it for him.
My guess is that his play is to say it is clear that the top issues for general voters this election are economy, Iraq, and w.r.t. those two, "change". So he will try to make the case that the # of SoCons is smaller than the # of people (Repubs + Ind) that are looking to elect someone who they think can fix a broken system. I think as we head into a recession, this can be a winning message, especially delivered from the only candidate who has a successful business background.
But, as you point out, the outcome of these primaries is only going to further fragment the field and cause complete paralysis in nominating a candidate, further hurting our chances in general. I contend that behind the scenes RNC needs to start pushing some people out. As we've said, if Huck finishes 3rd in SC, it's time for him to go. If Fred doesn't finish in top 2 in SC, it's time for him to go. Rudy needs to drop out after Super Tuesday, assuming the big states he thought he had (FL, CA, and NJ) actually end up going for McCain as present polls show. Then it's time to decide whether McCain or Mitt is the nominee, and who are they selecting as VP.
BTW, assuming Hillary wins Dem nomination, is it still considered unlikely that she would pick Obama as VP? That super ticket would all but kill us. I haven't heard much on this recently, I wonder whether their recent spat ran so deep that they wouldn't pair up.