Thursday, January 31, 2008
Are we there yet?
It seems like we're days away from crowning McCain as the nominee. Insider Advantage has some new 2/5 polls out today, showing McCain with an 8 and 11 point lead over Huck in TN and GA, respectively. McCain's leading Mitt by 8 in IL and Huck by 20 in MN.
So before we close the book on the GOP primaries, let's have a little buyer's remorse in advance (I'd be doing the same thing regardless of whoever actually won the nomination), and take a look at some of the arguments being posted today on R 4 '08 contra-McCain's electability. Check out this and this, remind yourself that people being polled now only think they know the candidates, but could think very differently after months of being bombarded with information.
Here's a taste:
And this:
So before we close the book on the GOP primaries, let's have a little buyer's remorse in advance (I'd be doing the same thing regardless of whoever actually won the nomination), and take a look at some of the arguments being posted today on R 4 '08 contra-McCain's electability. Check out this and this, remind yourself that people being polled now only think they know the candidates, but could think very differently after months of being bombarded with information.
Here's a taste:
In a whole host of ways, I’m pretty close to John McCain ideologically and nearly supported him at various points this election season. But, the McCain of the last few weeks (who seems now to be simply McCain, with a bigger microphone, and on a larger stage) is a uniquely unappealing character, from his deeply flawed temperament, to his irrational lashing out at capitalism and capitalists, to his utter inability to answer a question substantively. He will lead us to a defeat of historic proportions, current polls notwithstanding.
And this:
Obama raises $32 Million in one month, McCain is in the red. Sorry, McCain will not have the MSM at his back and he has no idea how to run a campaign’s finances.
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January
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- A Small Comfort
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7 comments:
More commentary here about why we shouldn't pick McCain.
Here are my thoughts:
1. I will vote for Republican nominee, whoever he is, because any of the candidates is preferable to Hillary / Obama.
2. If McCain is the nominee, I am not sure the conservative movement will fall in line, such as Rush, NR, ... The impact could be disastrous not just for this general election, but what it might do to the party.
3. I agree with the points made in the article I link to above, that polls showing McCain as "the only" candidate who can beat Hill and Obama are meaningless at this point. It's way too early in the cycle for them to mean anything. Those same polls say Mitt only gets 40-42% of the vote. Does anyone really believe he'd get that low of a total? Those polls show a lot of uncommitted voters when Mitt is the nominee, which goes to MB's points from earlier, that he is still a relatively unknown commodity on the national scene. If he were selected as our nominee, his coverage would increase, and I think his support as well.
4. I really wonder whether the number of Ind and Dem voters McCain attracts will be enough to offset the base that might sit out the vote in Nov. If the primaries are any indication, Dem/Ind voters will dramatically outnumber Repub, so the preliminary answer would seem to be "yes", he will attract more votes than he will lose.
5. How quickly will the MSM's love affair with McCain evaporate if he is selected as the nominee? How quickly will all those points they described as his positive attributes in glowing terms suddenly be labeled as "irrelevant" or only of marginal importance? Rather, they will highlight his well-publicized temper, his lack of economic experience (perhaps even dredging up the Keating 5), force him to address his "gook" comments from 2000 (highlighted in one of the links from Fredo), etc.
All good points, SHK. It's an almost certainty that the MSM will turn on him as soon as he's up against a Dem nominee. But, the MSM will turn on any GOP candidate. It almost doesn't matter who the GOP nominee, the media will find plenty to use against whoever it is. That being said, it's my hope that conservatives realize that he is a much better choice than either Dem. Both remaining Dem candidates have explicitly said they'd raise taxes and spending. Neither would be nearly as good as McCain on national security. I could go on and on, but you get the point. It's quite annoying that the conservative pundits keep saying McCain is not conservative. He clearly is. Just not as conservative as they'd like. Again I say, don't let perfect get in the way of good.
MB, I'm totally with you on keeping the perfect from preventing the good. I'm pretty sure at this point that McCain will be the nominee and I'll fall in line and get my lawn signs.
I do worry a bit, from a pragmatic standpoint, if Republicans (including myself) are letting polls dictate our analysis of who the most electable GOP candidate would be, even though polls this far out are notoriously unreliable. As Mark Levin pointed out in his column today, the polls had Carter beating Reagan one month before the general, and Carter got crush-ed.
Perhaps the problem is simply that, regardless of the Republican candidate, the Dems have such an advantage in this cycle that I'm going to be left feeling like we can't win regardless of who is nominated.
The whole way we select our nominee stinks. First, I think there's a lot of truth to Fredo's question about whether a lot of Repub voters are being lead to McCain simply because the polls suggest he's more electable. Next, the way the primaries are staggered also results in a few states basically dictating how the others vote. I think people need to vote for who they believe is the best candidate for them, and not based on whether someone in another state voted for someone else and therefore gave that candidate "momentum". Make your own momentum when it's your state's turn.
I'm not sure having Super Tuesday first is the answer, but I think that somehow there should be a requirement that in order to have a day with primaries or caucuses, at least 3 or 5 states must be involved. This way you at least get some more honest voting, with people sticking to who they want rather than who someone in another state wants.
There's no doubt polls and early primaries have a big influence on voting. And there's no question that polls are often wrong. If everyone understood the issues and candidates' positions on them and voted that way, Newt Gingrich would probably have a good shot at President. Unfortunately, most people don't make well informed votes. McCain certainly wasn't and isn't my first choice. If you recall, Duncan Hunter was my favorite.
Speaking of Newt, that guy could outdebate any candidate from either party. Not only is more informed on more issues than anyone, he is an excellent debater and presents his position well.
Draft Hunter in Minny '08!