Wednesday, January 09, 2008
More Speculation for the Sake of Speculation
Calling out Fredo - do you still think I was wrong in saying it's too early to call the Dem nod for Obama?
NH results are obviously not good for Mitt. This is not any groundbreaking guesswork, but if Mitt doesn't convincingly win MI, he's done. My newish guess is the following:
Dems - this will be a ping-pong match between Hillary and Obama with Obama getting the nod after Edwards drops out and endorses him
GOP - McCain wins MI, Huck wins SC, Fred drops out after SC, McCain wins FL, Rudy drops out, Mitt has a disappointing Super Tuesday, Huck does well on Super Tuesday in the South making it a Huck-McCain battle, McCain wins the nomination and the White House
NH results are obviously not good for Mitt. This is not any groundbreaking guesswork, but if Mitt doesn't convincingly win MI, he's done. My newish guess is the following:
Dems - this will be a ping-pong match between Hillary and Obama with Obama getting the nod after Edwards drops out and endorses him
GOP - McCain wins MI, Huck wins SC, Fred drops out after SC, McCain wins FL, Rudy drops out, Mitt has a disappointing Super Tuesday, Huck does well on Super Tuesday in the South making it a Huck-McCain battle, McCain wins the nomination and the White House
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12 comments:
Geez, is that what I get after graciously trumpeting your correct IA prediction?
Unless you predicted "the cry", I don't want to hear about it. Shrillary was dead and buried 48 hours ago.
That said, I'm sure glad (as Maureen Dowd has it this morning) that Hill's trying to "cry her way back to the White House."
Last thing we needed was O!bama rolling the whole process, with 4-5 months of primary-opposition free fund raising while the GOP field continued its internecine conflict.
Hey, wait a minute. No one said you get to change your predictions. I've still got you down for SC-Mitt, FL-Mitt, and Nomination-Mitt.
Just when we get to the part of the cycle that's shaping up as good for my predictions (SC-Huck, FL- Huck) I'm not letting you off the hood.
BTW, last brokered convention on the GOP side was Dewey in '48. So that predicition was truly taking a huge flyer.
But that's the kind of bold that I am. I'll put it all on the line.
Wow. Must have touched a nerve. Three reply comments in five minutes! "The cry" is immaterial. I didn't say why it was too early to call, just that it was too early. The Clintons are too good at campaigning to be defeated so easily. Changing my prediction is my reward for correctly calling IA. Plus, you're wrong about FL anyway. Either Rudy or McCain will win there. A brokered convention is a bold prediction and may yet happen, but my money's on McCain. And, since I also predicted NH correctly, I get to change my prediction again after MI :).
A few points:
1. Romney's campaign made a mistake, they went too negative with ads. Romney has indicated he will be taking more control over his campaign going forward. It is clear that voters are sick of politics-as-usual in Washington, they don't want bickering and they want "change". Therefore, I think negative ads in the primaries will mostly backfire. Mitt was doing well when his ads focused on all the things he's done well, he should continue the positive message. As further proof, Mitt is the only one who has run negative ads (that I've seen). McCain, Obama, Hill, and Edwards have all only run positive spots about themselves.
2. If I hear one more person in the media exclaim surprise at how well Huck is doing with minimal dollars I'm going to lose it. NO ONE SHOULD BE SURPRISED by his support - the only thing that should have been surprising was his apparent lack of support a few months ago. In a GOP primary where none of the candidates before Huck was running on a solid Christian campaign, how can anyone be surprised at his support given the size of SoCon influence in Repub party?? I've said it before and I'll say it again - if Mitt were a more traditional Christian and not Mormon, this race would already be over.
3. Mitt needs to win MI to show he can get the job done.
4. Has Jeb Bush endorsed anyone yet?
5. The two greatest immediate challenges we face (IMO) are Iraq/GWOT and economy. I think McCain would excel at #1, while Romney would excel at #2. I don't get the sense yet that Huck really has what it takes to solve either of these properly, but perhaps those who watched previous debates (I haven't) have a different opinion of him. Any sense from you guys about where he would stand compared to Mitt, McCain, and Rudy on being able to make solid decisions on key complicated issues?
You can predict as much as you want, but you will be held to account.
The all-seeing eye follows you and remembers initial predictions!
SHK, I agree that McCain will do a good job on defense and Mitt on the economy. I liked something I heard McCain say in regards to taxes during the FNC roundtable following the IA caucus. In response to him being questioned on not voting for a tax cut, he said that he didn't want to cut taxes without also cutting spending. So, I think he'd be ok on the economy as well. His standpoint on illegal immigration is probably my biggest problem with him.
SHK,
Good comments. I will respond to your question, but one nit to pick first:
In a GOP primary where none of the candidates before Huck was running on a solid Christian campaign,
This is simply untrue. Brownback had better name recognition and was known as the pre-eminent values-oriented politican in DC, and Huck ran him out of the race thanks to besting him at Ames.
Plus, Romney made great inroads with these voters in IA by going out of his way to court them: making an all-out push at the value voters straw poll, and putting pro-family policies front-and-center in his campaign in order to differentiate himself from Rudy.
Other 2nd tier candidates (which is what Huck was at the time too) also went out of their way to run on explicity pro-family and pro-life grounds: Hunter (wanted to add a pro-life amendment to the constitution and permanently outlaw gay marriage and/or civil unions), Gilmore, Tancredo (although his rock-solid family track record was overshadowed by his anti-illegal-immigration advocacy), and T Thompson (who had a pro-family track record and a much stronger overall resume than Huck or just about anyone in the GOP field).
Tancredo is an evangelical, Hunter is a baptist just like Huck, and Gilmore a protestant as well. T Thompson a Catholic.
Any of these candidates would have been more-than-plausible as a pro-family stalwart, but Huck flat out won this segment with good campaigning, despite trailing several of these candidates in resources and name recognition/perceived electablity.
I thought "Update Your Predictions" meant they weren't final. There was no mention of an all-seeing eye before. I need to go buy a solid, bolt-action deer rifle as they don't make a solid, bolt-action all-seeing eye rifle. Disembodied omniscient vision organs terrify me.
Touche.
However, "update" occurred on the eve of voting, and we all picked through the early primary states. If we update after each state, I can get 'em all with virtually 100% accuracy (and that's saying something with the start I'm off to).
Let's see, I called SC for Huck. After NH, I'll call SC for McCain. And after MI, I'll call it for Mitt. After NV, I'll pick Fred in SC (drats, its the same day).
That should cover me.
BTW, any predictions or updates I've made have all been for events in the future.
MB 2-0
Fredo 0-2
I'd love to see how close to 100% you can come with updates after each state. I bet a bottle of Rare Breed vs a case of Sam Adams you don't break 80%.