Thursday, January 31, 2008
Super Tuesday
Poll time! Which will occur on Super Tuesday:
1) McCain will win the most delegates, and his total number will be more than half making him the clear front-runner.
2) McCain will win the most delegates, but his total will be less than half, thus keeping Mitt and Huck's chances alive.
3) Mitt will win the most delegates.
4) Other.
McCain gets a big leg up if he wins NY and NJ, that's ~150 winner-take-all delegates. I think Mitt will do well in CA and win some of their 173, but realistically he probably won't get the half or more he needs. Mitt should take Utah's WTA 36 delegates. My guess is (1), but I'm hopeful enough people saw last night's debate that maybe we get (2).
1) McCain will win the most delegates, and his total number will be more than half making him the clear front-runner.
2) McCain will win the most delegates, but his total will be less than half, thus keeping Mitt and Huck's chances alive.
3) Mitt will win the most delegates.
4) Other.
McCain gets a big leg up if he wins NY and NJ, that's ~150 winner-take-all delegates. I think Mitt will do well in CA and win some of their 173, but realistically he probably won't get the half or more he needs. Mitt should take Utah's WTA 36 delegates. My guess is (1), but I'm hopeful enough people saw last night's debate that maybe we get (2).
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5 comments:
Rasmussen has Mitt w/in 4 in CA, though Rudy was still in that poll. Where do his votes go?
Mitt needs Huck to clean up in the South, where he's running neck-and-neck with McCain in MO, GA, TN, MS and AL.
He also needs to win a state other than MA and UT. CA would give him everything he needs. Could he make any headway in CT, next door to his old stomping grounds?
McCain's going to win NY and NJ and that's like 160 delegates right there.
Bottom line is, Huck is in a much better position on super Tues. to win delegates than Mitt, unless last night's debate really changed minds.
Without looking at all the states, delegate counts and methods (in other words, my completely off-the-cuff uninformed opinion), I don't think Mac will get more than 50% of the Super Tues delegates. But he'll have a sizeable lead.
Mitt/Huck starts to look a little more plausible.
I'll have to disagree. McCain has name recognition. Many voters don't watch debates and many barely know who Mitt Romney is. McCain wins big across the board on Tuesday, including some of the southern states.
#1--bank on it
Mitt will not win most delegates in MA, I think McCain will. Ind voters can vote in Repub primary here, and my guess is that Obama and McCain will be the big winners of this state. However, since it's not WTA, Mitt could get a reasonable # of votes, especially since the top talk radio guy here (Jay Severin, a libertarian) is a devout pro-Mitt anti-McCain guy.