Monday, January 14, 2008
Is it McCain?
Since my last post the RCP polling numbers have turned even more in McCain's favor. I think it will be difficult for Mitt to win the Republican primary in MI for the simple reason that is anything but a Republican primary. With the Dems basically skipping MI, and MI rules allowing not only Independent voters but also registered DEMOCRATS to vote in the Republican primary, it is an absolute farce of a situation as Fredo has mentioned before. It disgusts me that even though among Republican voters Mitt leads McCain in that state, and even more tellingly by a 2:1 margin among those who say the economy is the biggest issue this election (and that is certainly #1 in MI with job losses), McCain could still win because of all the non-Republican votes.
Bottom line is that it seems McCain might have the nomination locked up, with leading positions in polls in MI, SC, and FL. However, Jay Cost at RCP says hold on a sec, keep in mind that the leaders of conservative party don't like McCain, which is why he is lagging in endorsements and support. This may catch up to him, they claim.
We unfortunately though now come back to the age-old question of compatibility vs. electability. As I've mentioned several times, I am most in agreement with Mitt and Thompson on the issues, and I believe they would provide the leadership we need on both foreign and domestic issues. That said, based on the number and type of voter turnout to date I am starting to accept that of the Republican candidates, only McCain can win in the general. He is the only one who appeals to Ind voters, Dem voters, and young voters, and I think is seeming like the only one who can win in '08. Perhaps we'll see a McCain-Thompson ticket?
Bottom line is that it seems McCain might have the nomination locked up, with leading positions in polls in MI, SC, and FL. However, Jay Cost at RCP says hold on a sec, keep in mind that the leaders of conservative party don't like McCain, which is why he is lagging in endorsements and support. This may catch up to him, they claim.
We unfortunately though now come back to the age-old question of compatibility vs. electability. As I've mentioned several times, I am most in agreement with Mitt and Thompson on the issues, and I believe they would provide the leadership we need on both foreign and domestic issues. That said, based on the number and type of voter turnout to date I am starting to accept that of the Republican candidates, only McCain can win in the general. He is the only one who appeals to Ind voters, Dem voters, and young voters, and I think is seeming like the only one who can win in '08. Perhaps we'll see a McCain-Thompson ticket?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
AddThis
Always sniffing for the truth
Contributors
Links
- Love and Lunchmeat
- Long Island Prepper
- Fredo's Mets Blog
- Continental Sausage
- Human Events
- Maker's Mark
- Michelle Malkin
- National Review
- Newt Gingrich
- NRO
- Pro Ecclesia
- Ralfy's Whisky Reviews
- Red Albany
- Res Publica et Cetera
- Sour Mash Manifesto
- Straight Bourbon
- Taki Mag
- The American Conservative
- The American Spectator
- The Anchoress Online
- The Politico
- The Weekly Standard
- Wild Turkey Bourbon
Blog Archive
-
▼
2008
(731)
-
▼
January
(93)
- A Small Comfort
- McCain sweep on the horizon
- Are we there yet?
- Well, this cinches it
- Super Tuesday
- More McMentum
- Good news of the day
- Mitt's wheels spin. No traction.
- Mad Money Update #3
- Fait Accompli
- Q: which party wants a tax increase in 2011?
- Grading the polls
- NOW - What a Farce
- FL thoughts
- GOP Veepstakes
- That's Funny...
- This two-man race is getting entertaining
- Shotguns
- Might it be Obama?
- Repub National Poll
- What will Giuliani do?
- The Obama smackdown
- Crist endorses McCain
- McCain and Hillary: BFF?
- Heard by Fredo while in Vegas:
- Name dropping
- What's next?
- FL
- Sobering ...
- Jeb for Mitt?
- Sen. McCain's letter to the March for Life
- Duncan Hunter endorses Huck
- McCain wins the LA Caucus
- Insider Advantage FL poll
- Huckabee needs some Huck-a-bills
- Mad Money Update #2!
- Fred Drops Out
- Watch the Mitt futures soar
- Please fasten your seatbelts
- Early Florida thoughts
- Mitt leading in FL?
- Just because
- McCain wins SC!
- Romney wins NV
- While Fredo v. Worm
- Rush pulling for Mitt?
- GOP Scoreboard
- Romney lowering the bar in SC
- Fredo's Mad Money Update
- It's Mitt!
- Rush on Republicans
- If this is what they do to themselves...
- Is it McCain?
- McCain or bust?
- Time for a Break from Elections
- Fred Eviscerates Huck
- About as unexpected as Caribou Express sipping on ...
- Fredo's Mad Money Challenge
- Current intrade ask prices
- Mitt Pulls Ads in FL, SC...
- Should their votes count?
- Candidate Quiz
- The Fredo's Crystal Ball Primary Challenge
- Scenario: What happens in a GOP Brokered Convention?
- Gotta Love the KosKidz
- More Speculation for the Sake of Speculation
- Enjoy the drama
- Huck's good ear
- Mitt found his mojo
- Why Rudy is still viable
- Caribou Express and Worm were in New Hampshire today
- One more poll in the hopper,
- Two new S-USA polls
- Just as an aside
- Is it already over?
- Mitt Wins WY
- Making Sausage is Aesthetically Appealing by Compa...
- Be afraid. Be very afraid.
- A Republican "Reformation"
- Byron York: How Huck Beat the Romney Machine
- Live Blogging the Cawkeye
- Buying a solid bolt action deer rifle
- Another good one:
- Novak with one of the great headlines:
- Real-time Caucus results & bloggers conference call
- Bar Stool Economics
- Hideous thought of the day
- Paging Linderman, Protium, DC!
- Prediction Summary
- One Day More
- Topic du jour
- David Brooks sees the forest
- Iowa is a means to an end
-
▼
January
(93)
4 comments:
The ultimate irony is that if McCain does win presidency, I think everyone loses. True conservatives don't like his position on most issues, and I'm almost positive that the MSM and Dems who say they love his "straight talk" and honesty now will find him to be too conservative once he's in office. It's like one of my high school social studies teachers once said: "In compromise, everyone loses. One person wants to go to a steakhouse, another person wants to get seafood, a third wants to go to a nice Italian place, and you wind up at Chi-Chis where no one is happy."
As an aside, I highly recommend this book. The illustrated edition of 1776 by McCullough, which I'm halfway through, is amazing. The huge paintings and illustrations on each page, along with the enormous number of pull-out replica documents, really add amazingly to his already exceptionally well-written book to make you feel like you are really there. His John Adams bio is also an excellent read; I've got the Hamilton book by Chernow and Franklin book by Isaacson on deck.
I'd love to get a little OccObs Book Panel going. Let me know when you're going to start Chernow's Hamilton book. I've got it in my own queue and would love to share notes.
Definitely.. Hoping to get to that one in a few weeks, I'll let you know. After those I'll be looking for a good one on the man, George Washington.
I think Rudy and Huck are done. For Rudy, the polls show exceptionally bad news with McCain now leading in both FL and CA, two states Rudy was really banking on. Plus, if McCain wins CA primary, the Republican party has to be considering the possibility that he actually might be able to deliver that state in the general, which would mean no chance for Dem victory. For Huck, I think his only other state is SC, and even that seems likely to break for McCain or even Thompson.
If Mitt can pull off the miracle of all miracles and win in MI, despite the bogus nature of the primary, it instantly becomes a two-man race between himself and McCain. Mitt leads in total # of delegates, but a win in MI would really be critical for him to convince voters on the fence of his viability and pick up momentum for super Tuesday.
Might be worth adding another one to the list: this book on the election of 1800. Good to see that bitter partisan politics were alive and well as early as 1800, with the hope of Washington and others that party allegiance would not win out over true conviction to people and principles crushed just a few years into democracy.
It certainly would have been a great time to be alive and in America, from say 1770 to 1800, to witness the spirited debates and birth of the nation.