Monday, January 28, 2008
FL thoughts
I don't think tomorrow will end whoever loses between Mitt and Mac. The winner gets a round of good press and 55 delegates, but both will go on to Super Tuesday.
Mac needs the win to establish he can win a closed primary and to keep the funds rolling in. But even if he loses he is still up in the polls in most of the Super Tuesday states, particularly the big ones.
Mitt needs to break Mac's momementum, although he can presumably still fund his TV and radio attacks, even in the major markets, after a loss in FL.
Rudy needs to defy the polls or his race ends tomorrow. He's saying he'll go on to Super Tuesday regardless of the outcome, but I think that's just posturing.
Huck doesn't have much at stake. By pulling out early, he's kept the expectations bar low. If he beats Rudy, that would be a coup and generate some free pub. But he's looking forward to next week and the chance to corral delegates in GA, MS, AL, TN and MO.
Mac needs the win to establish he can win a closed primary and to keep the funds rolling in. But even if he loses he is still up in the polls in most of the Super Tuesday states, particularly the big ones.
Mitt needs to break Mac's momementum, although he can presumably still fund his TV and radio attacks, even in the major markets, after a loss in FL.
Rudy needs to defy the polls or his race ends tomorrow. He's saying he'll go on to Super Tuesday regardless of the outcome, but I think that's just posturing.
Huck doesn't have much at stake. By pulling out early, he's kept the expectations bar low. If he beats Rudy, that would be a coup and generate some free pub. But he's looking forward to next week and the chance to corral delegates in GA, MS, AL, TN and MO.
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2 comments:
I had heard some hints that Rudy might drop out if he loses FL, since he's stated that in his opinion whoever wins FL will win the nomination. I think he would withdraw to save face, and still have credibility as a consultant and speaker. His whole money-making gig is about leadership, and if he continues to take woodshed-style beatings it's going to be hard to justify ponying up $150 K per event to hear him talk about leadership. My guess is he'll have to seriously weigh whether he thinks he has a chance to win NY, NJ, PA, and CA, if he wants to stay in. Right now, he's a distant 3rd in CA, and trailing in most other states.
Shocking facts on TV ads in the FL-GOP race:
Romney's Major Florida Advantage
29 Jan 2008 05:51 am
Mitt Romney's had an 8 to 1 television ad advantage in Florida... part of the reason why he's made the competitive. Heck, most of the reason he's made the race competitive has been his ads.
According to Neilsen, he's run 4,475 ads compared to John McCain's 470 through 1/22.
McCain did not run a single ad until January; Romney ran more ads in September than McCain has run to date.