Monday, January 21, 2008
Mitt leading in FL?
If this flash from Drudge is true, it is huge. Rasmussen is perhaps the most accurate of all the polls (I'd say equal to Zogby).
FLASH: RASMUSSEN Florida poll to be released: Romney 25, McCain 20, Giuliani 19... Developing...
FLASH: RASMUSSEN Florida poll to be released: Romney 25, McCain 20, Giuliani 19... Developing...
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4 comments:
I heard an interesting comment that Rudy is counting on the fact that many absentee ballots have already been cast.
Rasmussen has been great in the general. In the primary, they've been consistently good, but have tended to overpoll conservatives relative to the other agencies. For instance, they didn't show McCain winning SC (tied w/ Huck) and I think they had Mitt in NH.
On the flip side, ARG has consistently overpolled moderates and independents, had McCain by 7% in SC, and McCain with 19% in IA.
One important note in FL is that it is a closed primary, Registered Republicans only.
Another note: if Mitt, McCain, or Huck were to win in Florida, the winner would become the delegate leader immediately.
Also, I'm wondering if this new flash poll even includes Thompson. Not surprising that the Fred support would slide over to Mitt.