Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The Fredo's Crystal Ball Primary Challenge
Fredo thinks he can come close to 100% accuracy in predicting winners in the GOP primaries if he can update his predictions after making correct ones. Buried in the comments, I challenge him to do so with a bottle of Wild Turkey Rare Breed as a prize if he breaks 80% and a case a Sam Adams for me if he doesn't. Here are my proposed rules:
All predictions must be for future events.
You must pick the winner - i.e. the candidate that gets more delegates than any other candidate.
You get one update for each correct prediction.
Your existing record counts which means you are at 0% and you don't get an update until you get a winner right.
Do you accept Fredo?
All predictions must be for future events.
You must pick the winner - i.e. the candidate that gets more delegates than any other candidate.
You get one update for each correct prediction.
Your existing record counts which means you are at 0% and you don't get an update until you get a winner right.
Do you accept Fredo?
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January
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- A Small Comfort
- McCain sweep on the horizon
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8 comments:
Oh, count me in. I already have Huck. Please add McCain as my "new" prediction now that NH is over, and I'll probably pick Mitt over Fred after MI, but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. 3 out of 4 chances? I like my odds.
Oh and by the way, I never added the caveat, "after correct ones," you did. Not sure I get the logic of that.
Kind of like saying in baseball that the losing team has to play 8 guys the following day. Interesting rule. Probably one I'd go for if I already knew I'd won the opener.
If I'm not misktaken, your prediction was Mitt in IA & NH (http://occobs.blogspot.com/2008/01/prediction-summary.html). Which means you're 0-2 and don't get an update. That makes Huck your pick for SC & FL.
About the caveat, my challenge, my rules :).
Oh. Well then, I must politely decline, despite the flavor of Rare Breed on my lips which I can almost imagine.
Despite my potent power of foresight, I don't think matching a 1-of-5 choice for me vs. a 3-of-5 choice for you makes much sense as a bet.
Especially not when I already have the inside track for SC and FL based on current picks!
Where are you getting 1-of-5 and 3-of-5? When I say update, I mean only the most recent pick counts. I also mean all the primaries. I think you have a pretty good shot since Huck has a good chance in SC. You also get to make initial picks for all the other states. Super Tuesday alone could bring you over 80%.
My point in the intial thread was that if you pick a new candidate after each primary it's silly, b/c no matter what happened, say if you could be like "Oh, I had that guy originally." Or, "I
Well, we all picked through FL. After FL I think we'll set up a new set of predicitions for Super Tuesday, after we know who is still in and out.
If we're feeling really adventurous, we might even use the in trade contract prices, give ourselves a set number of dollars each, and then we're forced to allocate our money among intrade contracts so that we have to choose some underdogs (or else go straight chalk and get less picks). That would be cool.
Propose some rules and $OccObs starting amounts. I think it could be fun.